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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (120449)	6/15/2002 12:44:43 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Steady on Mucho. Get a grip. <...what matters is the money, not the technology. technology is for geeks, money is for survivors. MSFT showed it, now GSM is showing it. > Technology plus money still wins and CDMA is the el supremo technology. Wait until the serious competitive selling gets under way based on price instead of marketing flim-flam and we'll see which technology stays in business. Then, watch what happens when fast cyberspace technology is available in mobile gadgets. GSM is not showing any such thing. Technology isn't for geeks, it's for people, commonly called customers, who have money. Those money-bearing people buy good technology which does what they think is a good thing at what they think is a good price. CDMA continues to increase market share worldwide despite a late start, being still embryonic in China and many other countries. GSM is obsolete, which doesn't mean it dies immediately. It carries on, like my obsolete things, until I can't extract more value out of it and I make the big jump to the next thing. We [our family] used to have all analogue phones. Then we had all GSM phones. Now we have 50% CDMA phones. That will be 100% in about a year. 1xRTT will be next in line - starting in July. We have had analogue, TDMA, GSM and CDMA in direct competition here. TDMA and analogue have missed out. GSM is rapidly losing market share to CDMA. VERY rapidly. That process will accelerate. Now, back to your normal, reasonable, sensible, feet on the ground self. Mqurice PS: Microsoft is our software supplier because their technology and price ratio was far better than alternatives. I love it when Windows XP tells me that a download is ready to be installed. I click "Okay" and Microsoft does the maintenance for me. That's cool! Microsoft's software is amazingly cheap, which shows the wondrous advantage of a large human population, low unit costs, and cyberspace.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (120449)	6/15/2002 8:10:31 AM
From: qveauriche	Respond to of 152472

<This fantasy is now finally being crushed, and the emotional impact is likely to be outsized precisely because we are dealing with a carefully constructed mythology...The myth of how CDMA can help an operator to outperform other standards is pretty much debunked by the U.S. market.> Mucho- That doesn't rock. It evades the issue. Broken record time around here again. But everyone has always understood the relative parity of IS-95A&B and GSM in offering voice services to the consumer. The promise of IS-95 is that CDMA has the capacity to evolve into something much better, whereas GSM does not. BUT AS FAR AS OUTPERFORMING COMPETING STANDARDS IN THE MARKET, ITS ALWAYS BEEN UNDERSTOOD THAT CDMA WOULD ONLY BEGIN TO DISTANCE ITSELF FROM THE COMPETITION WHEN THE POST-2G WORLD ARRIVED. So on the eve of widespread 1X deployment Tero reads the tea leaves of whats happened in the past few months in North American net adds in 2g phone subscribers, 2g being the only sandbox he can play in, and concludes that the North American market has "debunked the myth" of CDMA carrier superiority, which is about as meaningful as comparing the number of analog subs to GSM subs while the first GSM networks are just going live. And one of the most rational voices on this board gushes like a teenage girl at an NSync concert that Tero "rocks"? Like the analyst who said that demand for 1X in the US is suspect because there has been no demand in Europe using systems that don't work and despite the fact that demand for 1x has, in the lexicon of the day, "rocked" wherever its been deployed. (Sorry, Mucho, I know I'm showing my age here.) Leaving valuation issues aside, what do you presently know about the relative merits of 1X and GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA? CAPEX-This issue has been covered ad nauseum. IS-95 to 1X ev-do is a simple evolutionary upgrade, and will cost only a fraction of GSM/GPRS/EDGE/UMTS. In a debt constrained market this assumes even greater importance FUNCTIONALITY-We could stack links a mile high about the failures of GPRS, of how it will literally require the duplication of existing GSM networks in order to have the basestations needed to run the damn thing because it guzzles voice capacity to deliver the higher data speeds from a voice network that was capacity constrained to begin with; of low battery life, of consumer rejection. Meanwhile EDGE is in a laboratory somewhere, and WCDMA is mired in a committee process while the soon-to-be dethroned aristocracy of GSM squabbles over the IPR scraps that may be left over now that they have all signed license agreements with QCOM, and their engineers tear their hair out over how to resolve totally unnecessary technical quagmires which exist only because Nokia penis envy still wants it to look different enough from 1X so that they can claim that "their technology" has prevailed even though they are having to pay QCOM royalties to deploy it. CONSUMER ACCEPTANCE-Against all of this you have highly successful 1X launches in Korea and Japan (where FOMA has flopped), and even 1X ev-do launches in Korea. All of which leads us to this 3gtoday.com which will only grow more unbalanced over time, and which more convincingly debunks Tero's myth about the myth with each passing month. Now, having been totally unconvinced over Tero's argument on this point, I remain open to yours. In past discussions you have referenced the uniqueness of the Korean and Japanese markets due to their population densities, and that 1X may not work as well in more sparsely populated regions. I think that would be a topic worthy of discussion, and regret that I can't contribute to it because I'm clueless on the subject. If others have ideas on this issue, I wish you would post it. A final thought. Think for a moment about the rich irony of Tero of all people casting aspersions about "carefully constructed mythologies". He ought to know a thing or two about that. He's about to long for the days when the pace of events allowed him the luxury of "carefully constructed" mythologies. Enjoy the weekend, including the soccer. England have scored twice in the first 22 minutes against the Danes. The Univision guys,as usual, are going nuts. Also, if you have Fox Sports World, and you are open to something new (and IMHO much better than the NFL) they are showing the Australia-New Zealand Maori match at 3 eastern today and the All Blacks-Ireland match at 3 eastern tomorrow. Oh yeah, if you need a sleeping pill theres also baseball.