Supply and demand will always be the driving force, you all know that.
I'm in N Calif and the 90 stomping I took was a result of over supply and a declining population/work force. I had a 9 unit sub division I couldn't give away. So I'm always watching the demographics or at least it gains my attention. Ya it's not 1990, there's a much bigger demand well actually an under supply. That gives a cushion against a drastic price drop and of course the favorable interest rates.
The following article caught my eye so I thought I'd pass it on.
dave
I'll always be a bull for real estate, just right now I have a ring in my nose.
snip>
trivalleyherald.com
Unemployment news good and bad Some of decline due to people leaving state
By Business Writer: Marc Albert
The Bay Area and California jobless pictures improved in May, but some statistical gains came from people moving out of the state, not from robust job growth, economists said.
Still, the job picture may be slowly improving in the Bay Area as local companies begin adding jobs.
Statewide, the unemployment rate slipped to 6.3 percent in May, down 0.2 percent from April, according to data released Friday by the California Employment Development Department. The rate a year ago was 5.1 percent.
The state lost 9,000 jobs for the month, and the number of Californians holding jobs sank by 27,000.
Economists were not jubilant about the numbers.
"Basically we had a decline in the unemployment rate, jobs and the work force at the same time. The only way that can happen is if people drop out of the labor force," said Sung Won Sohn, an economist with Wells Fargo & Co.
Sohn said some of the jobless -- especially technology workers -- have returned to school, hoping for better prospects in the future, or have left the state.
Sohn noted that several companies recently have moved to Arizona and Nevada, taking their employees with them.
A total of 1.09 million Californians were without work in May, down 57,000 from April, but up 219,000 from a year ago.
"The decline will last for a while longer," Sohn said. "California is going to be one of the laggards in recovering because of setbacks in the
technology sector."
Other economists were slightly more upbeat.
"We are seeing more indications that we are not going to see a double-dip recession," said Stephen Levy, with the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy.
"We are moving slowly, and I emphasize slowly, off the bottom." Alameda County's unemployment rate was 6 percent in May, down from 6.3 percent in April, but up from 3.8 percent a year ago. The county's labor force declined by 3,500 for the month. In Contra Costa County, the unemployment rate was 4.5 percent in May, down from 4.8 percent in April and up from 2.8 percent a year ago. The county's labor force declined by 2,000 in May from a month earlier.
For the year, job losses in the two East Bay counties were concentrated in manufacturing industrial and electronic equipment and in business services. In San Mateo County, unemployment slipped to 4.1 percent in May, down from 4.4 percent in April. The level a year ago was 2.4 percent. The county's labor force fell by 700 from April and was off 2,000 from a year ago.
In the Marin-San Francisco-San Mateo region as a whole, services and business services were hit hardest compared with a year ago. The two sectors lost more than 10,000 jobs each.
Travel also was slammed, with 2,900 hotel and 9,100 transportation jobs lost.
In San Joaquin County, the unemployment rate plummeted to 8.7 percent in May, down from 10.1 percent in April as the agricultural harvests reached their peak. About4,300 farm jobs were added in the month. The rate a year ago was 7.9 percent.
Compared with a year ago, 4,000 new nonfarm jobs were added, mainly in government, finance, real estate and retail trade. Manufacturing and farms lost jobs during the year.
Experts said the size of the labor force creates a ripple effect in the economy. As the labor force increases, demand for houses and consumer goods increases, boosting sales and production and creating jobs.
A shrinking labor force has the opposite effect.
Experts said the Bay Area's job market may be climbing out of a rut. "The Bay Area counties, particularly San Francisco, Santa Clara and Alameda, have been the main drivers of increasing state unemployment since January 2001," said Michael Bernick, director of the Economic Development Department. "This month each showed significant declines."
Unemployment dropped from 7.6 percent to 7.1 percent in Santa Clara and from 6.8 percent to 6.3 percent in San Francisco. Economists said that while job growth has not taken off, the massive job losses of 2001 appear to be behind us.
"This is the slow beginning of a job recovery. It appears we have hit bottom on the job side," Levy said.
Experts predict that, at least for the short term, the state unemployment rate will move in a narrow range up or down between 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent. Levy said productivity gains, low interest rates and rising home equity should help fuel a recovery. |
