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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (32404)	6/16/2002 11:48:23 AM
From: Win Smith	Respond to of 281500

Carl, I think you're missing an obvious connection here. DEBKA was just confused about the destination of the Chinese Muslim army, they've obviously joined the Saudis on the Jordanian border. It's clearly a preemptive move by those dirty Chicoms to prevent the noble Hashemite restoration that would solve all the regions problems, if only Bush would get in line with the brilliant local warheads. Stay tuned for the latest DEBKA "scoop" on that front.

To: Bilow who wrote (32404)	6/16/2002 2:44:27 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Respond to of 281500

Before you use up too much of it thinking deeply about DEBKA ideas, you might consider their track record Yes, their predictions do tend to be wishful. The May invasion of Iraq certainly never happened. But as far as I can judge their reporting of events that have already happened (all there is to go by are confirmations or refutations that later appear in mainstream sources) is not too bad. The one area where their predictions are reliable is wrt to Arafat, because they always presume the worst about him and he usually obliges. Their commentary on what Bush is likely to say next week seems like an educated guess to me. They view it as an effort to 'square the circle' and throw a sop to Arab sensibilities in the interests of pursuing the Iraq campaign. This is not only unlikely to work, but any hint that it is working will only cause all those players who oppose the Iraq campaign to redouble their efforts on the Israeli/Palestinian front. In the view of DEBKAfile ’s political sources, the principal goal of the Bush statement will not be solving the Palestinian issue, but generating the best possible circumstances for the coming US offensive against Iraq. Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah, during his visit last April to the presidential ranch in Crawford, Texas, set out the oil kingdom’s price for backing the American offensive: Washington must show the Arab world a more “balanced” approach on the Palestinian-Israeli issue. This proposition kindled hopes in sections of the Bush administration, principally secretary of state Colin Powell, that Riyadh was not a lost case. Making Israel pay the price does not appear extortionate in those circles and might even win the Europeans round to at least token participation in the campaign against Saddam Hussein. At the same time, none of the parties is under any illusion that this trade-off can be anything but short lived, if not illusory. They are going through the motions in order to get the strike against Iraq moving. Even if Bush promises to force Israel to accept a Palestinian state within six months and evacuate every last settlement in three, they all know that Yasser Arafat will never turn away from terrorism to the end of his days, especially the suicide variety which he proudly regards as the apex of his achievement in the Muslim context. All the parties are equally aware that for the US president a terrorist is a terrorist and not to be tolerated. Therefore, the White House team will attempt the impossible, to draft a statement that suffices to win Saudi Arabia and Egypt round to supporting America’s war on Iraq – a doubtful prospect - as well satisfying Europe – which is just as dubious.

To: Bilow who wrote (32404)	6/16/2002 10:10:18 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 281500

Maybe it's another right wing Israeli / DEBKA fantasy / futile exercise in wishful thinking. Why this thread bothers to quote them is beyond me. I, like yourself, take what Debka says with a grain of salt, unless confirmed by other sources I trust. The Saudi buildup on the Jordanian border was confirmed for me by a source I trust. It may, or may not, be as large as Debka indicates, but something is occurring there with regard to a buildup. In fact, when I mentioned the "rumour" to my friend, I was surprised to see him knodding in agreement. But the question is whether those forces are there to threaten Jordan, or to be available should the Israeli-Palestinian conflict become even more unstable and every nation in the region launch an attack upon Israel. But even Saudi Arabia must realize that not only will Riyadh be turned into a nuclear wasteland, but also Mecca, Medina, and Jeddah. Hawk