Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (19888)	6/16/2002 11:46:38 AM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

DJ: You see inflation because you live in the (Euro)land of negative productivity. US manufacturing labor productivity in 1Q '02 was (+)8.6%, which leaves plenty of room for the robust growth in real incomes that the US economy is experiencing, plus falling prices for manufactured goods. Falling stock prices for last four weeks in the face of good economic news are totally irrational. We now have irrational despondence. The big surprise of the next couple of years will be flat to falling interest rates in the face of strong US GDP growth. The Chicken Littles have it dead wrong, just as the lemmings had it dead wrong in late '99. We are at, right now, a very significant buying opportunity for US equities. Dow 14,000 and Nasdaq 3,000 by 12/03.

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (19888)	6/16/2002 7:25:48 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi DJ, I am at the airport lounge, ready for my first trip out of HK in two weeks, for two days in Beijing. <<inflation-deflation>> I do not readily accept that pervasive and sustained above norm productivity increase on a global scale is a wonderful thing for the human civilization system. Productivity is good for a few who are able to tap into the productivity, for a while, before it invades the rest of the system and appear as deflation, unemployment, and ever diminishing cost (i.e. someone else's revenue). I believe, at any given time, there is a natural limit to productivity good before it starts to poison the system, much as too much vitamin in one 24 hour period is not a good idea. So, my script: bubble and its implosion caused price deflation, especially in manufactured goods out of over-capacity industries, followed by wild price inflation, especially in cost of limited resources. I am not sure about service prices, as in medical care and such, because on the one hand, the prices should and are increasing, but OTOH, folks are opting out of expensive HMO programs. The opting out will pick up speed as real income fails to keep in pace with service inflation, as taxes rise, and as employment/prospects fall. On the coming round of Financial Survival Game, timing will be more critical than all previous times. Not all can be winners, because the pie will get smaller, or more will have a bite of the same pie. Reduced expectations on income, investment gain, etc will be the norm, before or after the collapse. Chugs, Jay