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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bcrafty who wrote (61807)	6/17/2002 12:18:26 AM
From: stan_hughes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

bcrafty - I think you may have me mixed up with Longdong on the blow-off comment - Message 17602763 About the dollar and that link you posted - anything is possible, especially when CBs are involved. IMO gold is currently in back-and-fill mode as the USD recovers some lost ground, and FWIW I remain bullish on gold overall. My short term view about a further near term decline is based solely on my own TA interpretation. Specifically, I think conditions are such that gold has a good chance of seeing $310 again and an outside shot at $300, and I'm going to try to trade it accordingly. On the FA side of things, it goes without saying that a continued USD/gold retracement requires that WW3 not start this month, but I think that might be a good bet. Despite all the rhetoric, all my inputs suggest the US does not have a sufficient military buildup in place to do anything more serious than jawbone Iraq at the moment. In addition, the India-Pakistan situation seems to have stepped back from the brink, so any fast money longs that came in on the WW3 scenario could well be exiting over the next few weeks. Given the foregoing, and perhaps boosted by a deteriorating EU picture, I believe the dollar can strengthen a bit here. The fly in the ointment might be the US stock markets really blowing a gasket, but I think the markets can sell off within reason without the dollar necessarily having to drop precipitously from here. I'm inclined to believe that the risk of a sizeable correction in US stocks is already baked in to the dollar, and now that it's already fallen as far as it has, it may be a strategic error to continue to focus on it too heavily in terms of timing stock trades here, crash of the century scenario excepted. All JMHO, no guru I