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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (19925)	6/17/2002 3:15:19 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 74559

Given the content of your posts notifying us of your recent return, I must conclude, everything nice I ever said about you in relation to booms, busts or recoveries was in error. Thankfully, I never in fact, did say anything nice about you. whew!

To: AC Flyer who wrote (19925)	6/17/2002 3:16:28 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

playing the devil's advocate is an important role. when will you quit playing the fool and take it on?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (19925)	6/19/2002 7:55:28 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi ACF Mike, << someone has to play devil's advocate or you would get bored>> Exchanging views can never be boring, within reason, and I am sure I speak for all here that we appreciate your point of view … <<I remain fully invested - down about 1% for the year>> … especially in that you are quite brave, volunteering to act as a benchmark for a fully invested equity allocation, to measure ourselves against. I am up 4.68% YTD, mostly, in the vast majority, due to currency allocation moves. I had not made brave bets in the equity/bond markets, and have not done so since late 1999. I actually do not consider the currency market to be any less dangerous than equity markets, but perceive it to be simply a surer gamble at this juncture. Winning in this market is admittedly less satisfying than picking a boom boom kaboom stock, because winning is only in terms of USD numbers. On <<the market has a way of always disappointing the consensus in its mission to cause maximum pain to the maximum number of participants>> ... I agree. On Message 17612936 <<doomster mix - great ... about ... kitchen sink write-offs ... is that they will be followed, as day follows night, by tremendous year over year earnings improvements>> The write-offs, at least in my conservative mind, matters not one iota to valuation, which is high, because I actually pay attention to (a) final demand (weakening), (b) balance sheet of final demander and supplier to demander (both poor), (c) animal spirit (lacking), (d) free cash flow (none in techland, before, now, or ever, by definition), (e) management (same old stuff), (f) driver of economy (government and bombs led spending should be heavily discounted), and (g) visibility (poor, except for demographic abyss). Chugs, Jay