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To: AC Flyer who wrote (19927)	6/17/2002 12:16:04 PM
From: AC Flyer	Respond to of 74559

What a coincidence! nypost.com PROFIT COMEBACK By JESSICA SOMMAR June 6, 2002 Put away doubts about the recovery - corporate America is about to rake in some serious profits. "We are definitely seeing the most positive earnings preannouncements since 2000," said Stephen Rigo, an analyst at data and information resource Thomson Financial/First Call. "If the positive news continues at this rate, the second quarter will be the most positive earnings season on record" - since Thomson started keeping track in 1995. Corporate earnings have been under water for six quarters, marking the longest earnings recession since World War II. But the second quarter is showing a bright face to Wall Street as companies preannounce their earnings expectations for the second quarter. Positive earnings preannouncements are running 47 percent ahead of the first quarter at this time, and a whopping 107 percent ahead of last year's second quarter, at a comparable time, Thomson data show. Positive earnings preannouncements so far are at 257, or 35 percent of the current totals. Negative preannouncements are at 295, or 41 percent and in-line announcements are 174 or 24 percent of the total. Moreover, there's a neat data trick known as the guidance ratio, created by Joe Kalinowski, senior equity strategist at Thomson Financial, that measures the ratio between positive and negative preannouncements. This quarter, so far, the ratio is the most positive it's been since the firm began collecting the data in 1995. The ratio stands at present at 1.15 - meaning there's been approximately one negative pre-announcement to one positive pre-announce, Rigo explained. Last quarter it was 1.5. At it's worst in the second quarter of 1998, the guidance ratio came in at 7.0 - meaning there were a whopping seven bad preannouncements to every one piece of good news put out by companies. Thomson Financial/First Call follows more than 4,000 companies. Not all companies publish preannouncements, and negative preannouncements historically outweigh positive ones. Companies preannounce for a variety of reasons, but mostly to stem a possible stock slide for not meeting analysts' earnings expectations. But comparisons are easier to make this year. Because companies did so poorly last year, they don't have to improve by a lot to look darn good to Wall Street. "We are coming off some really bad data. But there is reason to believe we are returning to an environment that's very similar to the mid- to late-1990s - a period of high productivity, high profitability and low inflation," said Diane Swonk, chief economist for Chicago-based Bank One Corp. "Saying that profitability is returning to some really good levels, is not a stretch," Swonk added. And it's the hardest-hit companies, profits-wise, that are making a robust comeback. General Motors, Whirlpool, Maytag and basic materials companies, coal and steel have also seen big improvements, Swonk said, while the laggards are airlines and telecoms. "The tech sector is very mixed. It's not doing as well as it could. They still have a lot of problems and a lot more consolidations," Swonk warned. But information technology, companies such as Microsoft, Lucent and IBM, have some analysts salivating because they predict strong gains of 32 percent in the second quarter for the sector, based on an increase of capital spending. "I think those numbers are a little high right now, but I don't doubt a rebound," cautioned Thomson's Rigo.

To: AC Flyer who wrote (19927)	6/17/2002 12:16:33 PM
From: Frank Pembleton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

AC -- I see you're at it again... kitchen sink write-offs -- this doesn't inspire balance sheet confidence - if anything it just shows you how cooked the books really are. ...and you're a buyer, eh? Regards, Frank P.

To: AC Flyer who wrote (19927)	6/17/2002 3:18:17 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 74559

LOL! those improvements have been missing for two years. which year you forecasting for?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (19927)	6/17/2002 4:09:22 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

>>they will be followed, as day follows night, by tremendous year over year earnings improvements. << So it's 6:00AM or something, you're saying. Time to wake up. The earnings are improving or about to improve. Any forward-looking signs beside rearview mirror of write-offs? Not that these write-offs would be some "dark and stormy night", with a sign of the daybreak on the horizon. Look at cisco, or car producers. Looked to me more like fire sales than getting lean and mean - aka getting back to profits and profit growth of the past. Appreciate your taking a stand. dj