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To: Clarksterh who wrote (120566)	6/17/2002 2:04:37 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

re: analysts, most aren't worth much as evidenced by their mutual fund bretheren who as a group cannot outperform the market. well, this is a conclusion that any first-grader should be able to reach, as long as they know the correct inputs. market participants in the aggregate can NEVER beat the market, since their return is obviously the market return minus expenses (and first-graders can do subtraction :) it is a mark of how irrational the market is that so much money is actively managed by institutions, when any first-grader ought to be able to show the fiduciaries that they'd be better off in index funds. Why can't you acknowledge that from a cash flow situation AWE's is substantially worse than PCS'? And it is almost certainly due to their choices of technology if you show me the numbers i will be happy to acknowledge it. however, judging by reality, AWE had $3.1BILLION EBITDA last year compared to $2.8BILLION at PCS. in spite of the fact that AWE had much less debt than PCS. so is that due to their choice of technology? also, you need to keep in mind that there are inherent difficulties involved in comparing the EBITDA of two companies having substantially different capital structures and debt levels. The difference between the cash flow statement and the income statement is supposed to be only a matter of timing that is interesting. i've never heard that the only allowable disctinction between c/f and income is "timing". cos. are always and forever writing stuff off or taking gains to income that may never be reconciled within the fullness of time. so i find it hard to agree with you on that point.

To: Clarksterh who wrote (120566)	6/17/2002 2:26:22 PM
From: JohnG	Respond to of 152472

""I can acknowledge that PCS' debt position is substantially worse than AWE's "" PCS has all the spectrum they need for a while and a nearly completed high quality functionng 3G network easily upgradable to 307K BPS and on to EVDO. AWE has a half gone conversion to GSM and GPRS and no workable color GPRS Phones or decent software. It will cost billions to complete AWE's network with VZ and PCS poaching their customers all the way. AWE's survival is in question at this point. Rule of thumb is that first mover gets 50% of market. No. 2 gets 25% of mkt. I expect PCS and VZ to split 75% of the 3G market and AWE, Cingular and VoiceStream to split the other 25% among themselves. In short, if 3G really takes off, they are screwed.