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Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Larry S. who wrote (40694)	6/17/2002 3:50:57 PM
From: Kelvin Taylor	Respond to of 53068

Larry bullish? hmmmmm..... eom

To: Larry S. who wrote (40694)	6/17/2002 4:42:22 PM
From: DanZ	Respond to of 53068

Did the bear market die several months ago? Some people mistook the retest of the Sep 2001 lows as a continuation of the bearish trend. Fact is none of the major averages took out their September lows, and a lot of stocks spent the last week or two basing. Of course some stocks did worse than the averages over the last few months, but the market overall has been trading basically sideways for months. ORCL's chart looks especially good after today's trade as it took out highs from the last three weeks in a single day, bounced off the lower monthly bollinger band, and gave a parabolic SAR buy signal. The odds are it will at least test 10 short term.

To: Larry S. who wrote (40694)	6/17/2002 5:41:44 PM
From: E.J. Neitz Jr	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53068

Bull?Bear? What to do? I have no idea if we are just seeing a rally within a bear market or a rally in a new bull market. No one will for another 6 months or so....thats just the way it is. So what to do? Buy now and regret it later and lose more money? Or not buy or short here and see the market continue to stair-step upward and always being certain that the next move is down and remembering that just yesterday XYZ was lower...and if I buy now I am just buying into the next decline and perhaps missing a historic buying opportunity. For me, each strong market day is a day I just take it easy a bit and not do much..and each weak day I will nibble a bit on companies that are selling at reasonable prices and have fundamentals that indicate a good chance of survival and recovery. Is this a change from my strategy from 2000-early 2002? Yes. Is this a change from the way I operated through most of the 90's? No, this was my strategy during that time. Why the difference? Simply the probabilities of being near a bottom. Note the words NEAR and PROBABILITY and BOTTOM. Markets don't shoot to the stars or drop to the depths of the earth. That I know for certain.