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To: NOW who wrote (42321)6/17/2002 10:07:26 PM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
That's more than one question. -g

For me, it's not a matter of odds per se. if I don't get the backtest, I don't trade it. It's too simple. Sometimes, on a break over support (using down as an example), it'll just keep going. In this case, we got no backtest and you got no trade. No biggy -- a better train will come later, one with a backtest.

If you do get a backtest, it should be one that makes you doubt, otherwise, it's likely a trap before another wee push. This is the probe you mention -- one that makes you think "Hmmm.. wonder if this is gonna show me a failure to the upside. Better not short." That's an excellent entry with a tight stop.

The exception for me is a gap over support. For example, if something gaps down out of a wedge, the chances are far better that there will be no backtest.