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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (80313)	6/18/2002 5:29:47 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

The Fear Factor: So far, there's a strong correlation between movements in this new experimental indicator and the Market indices. The one week mov ave seems to have bottomed in the Tues 6/11 thru Mon 6/17 period, but since it's probably a contrarian indicator, there's no direct predictive capability. One can only say it's better to buy when Fear is at its max and sell when it's at its minimum. I would speculate that the politicians and news media may be getting some insight to the effect that if they lay on too heavily re threats and warnings, they may drive us back into recession. Presumably, they wouldn't want to take the blame for that with elections getting closer. I'd prefer to rely more on leading indicators, but if, as I suspect we're hostage to the day to day terrorism news flow, all that can be done is use a contrarian approach. I still think downside risk is small - from Friday's intraday lows, although factors such as options expirations and short covering could be affecting the day to day movements.