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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (143106)	6/18/2002 1:39:57 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

"I have enough confidence" My understanding of this position is that you understand the odds but do not think they apply to you. You do not believe you are lucky and can beat the odds that way. Instead you believe your superior ability to spot opportunity correctly and early will enable you to beat the odds. If you do not beat the odds, then odds are you lose all or most of your money. You specifically mention TIVO -- just looking at their chart it is an example of a risky bet that might end up as other risky bets end up, bankrupt. You believe this is not going to be the case. If you are wrong, you lose. If you are right you win. Of course they could also just linger on, going nowhere but not going bankrupt. But whatever the outcome, do you accept in advance that you can be wrong? Do you accept that all of your "early" bets can go busto?