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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tcmay who wrote (166508)	6/18/2002 4:02:37 PM
From: wanna_bmw	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Tim, I couldn't help but want to offer my $0.02 on the issue. One thing that I haven't heard anyone mention is the cause and effect relationship that has kept the computer industry on track for the past couple decades. The pundits (not you) always ask when they will ever need any more computing power, and the same applies to Internet bandwidth as well. In the computer industry, I notice that developers are more willing and eager to develop something with larger requirements, as long as there is a sufficient installed base that can already support the new features being implemented. With Internet content creation, many developers are still designing their web pages for the lowest common denominator. And this is in spite of many tools available that could enable much richer Internet experiences. With the majority of the country still using analog modems, you can't really design anything for your business without the requirements of those users in mind. On the other hand, the more potential customers in your market that have broadband connections, the more willing you will be to upgrade the content of your site to attract those viewers. But now you have a chicken and egg syndrome. Unless businesses continue to upgrade Internet infrastructure in anticipation of the need for greater bandwidth, then developers will not feel the need to generate content that takes up that bandwidth. I think that, like any new technology, there will be early adopters that make use of it before there is an actual "need". There will also be the niche uses that will drive the desire towards more instant gratification. For example, if I only need the bandwidth of my Internet connection 2% of the time, I would be very upset if I didn't have it during that 2% period. Not everybody has the good timing to go ahead and make lunch when they know they are about to download a significant file to their computer. Most of the time, people just browse the Internet haphazardly, and when they find something that looks interesting, say a video of the winning field goal to yesterday's football game, then they will want to download and watch it on the spot. They will want instant gratification, like I explained earlier. Although "media delivery" as you call it is infrequent now, I think it's increasingly becoming more popular, even with the most casual of web browsers. I think it is due to the Internet having achieved the critical mass of users demanding it that more sites are starting to offer the bandwidth hungry "media delivery" that begs the use of faster connections. My point, though, is that today's "media delivery" will not be anything like the "xxx delivery" of tomorrow. Cause and effect will compel developers to come up with new kinds of content, as their audience become more advanced users. The ground being broken by the enthusiast crowd will make way for the late-comers. It's hard to predict what will require the faster bandwidths of a broadband connection, but my belief is that everyone will eventually need them. The same applies to new computers as well. But this is all just my humble opinion. wbmw