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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff who wrote (2517)	6/18/2002 7:30:51 PM
From: exp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Jeff, I looked at all option expiry weeks since Jan 2000. Looks like the MaxPain game is (successfully) played about 50% of the time. You can tell by noting the sudden change of direction in the last 5-8 trading days before expiry Friday. The current expiry action very closely resembles the action into Feb 15 expiry as well as the action into April 19 expiry. If so, the top may be about 20 pts higher than todays highs. In addition, the Feb bottom occurred after the post-expiry drop. I expect a sharp drop after this expiry culminating in a late June major bottom (predicted by most cycle guys). Assuming this drop is capitulative in nature, a significant counter-trend rally may occur in the July-August period. If so, this will also prove the most basic adage "buy at VIX 40 and sell at VIX 20 and buy again at VIX 40 ...". Also, the May expiry action was almost a carbon copy of the Jan 2000 action. The only rally we had since Jan 2002 was in Feb-March and it was between option expiry weeks for Feb and March. Incidentally, NQs hit 1177 right after 4pm today from 1142 level just before ORCL news (I guess) for a 35 pt spike.