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To: orkrious who wrote (173676)	6/18/2002 9:25:23 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Ork: My basic view is much more bearish than is Zeev's but it is based on fundamentals, not technical considerations. The end users of the semi equipment producers' products are in terrible straits. Too much capacity, too much inventory and too little sales of their own end products. Tough to grit your teeth and buy expensive new equipment to produce even more excess inventory, from my perspective. Worse, this industry has never experienced such a scenario and I think everybody in the industry just pretends that this basic problem does not exist. It does, hence sooner or later, the evidence will be so overwhelming that they will be forced to deal with it. Another problem is that the semi producers are used to ordering their production equipment well in advance to ensure that they have positions in the production schedules. They have the right to "push out delivery" and I think that this is exactly what is just getting underway in the industry. Notice how many semi cap ex budgets have been getting shelled lately? This suggests that there are going to be plenty of cancellations as we go forward. Finally, many of the semi producers are neither financially strong enough to order big buck production equipment now, nor are they able to raise the easy dough to do this as was the case two years ago. As some would put it, "it's a new era". (g) best, Earlie