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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (3554)	6/18/2002 8:32:19 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95640

More from Briefing.com: 6:05PM Semi equip book/bill rises to 1.26; bookings rise to $1.08 bln : Semi equipment industry book-to-bill ratio rises to1.26 in May from revised 1.22 in April; Pru est for May was 1.23, so this report appears to be a bit better than expected. Bookings rose to $1.08 bln from revised $996 mln in April (these are rolling 3-month avgs). 6:03PM Oracle (ORCL) 8.98 -0.22: -- Update -- On call, company says it took a study (Gartner) with a peculiar methodology to conclude that IBM has a larger database market share. This study excludes ORCL's subscription licenses but includes IBM's rental fees... On the large deal front ($500,000+), 43% of revenue was this type, down from 52% a year ago... "seeing less of an appetite for larger products and there are fewer large deals." ... stock at 9.30. 5:59PM Oracle (ORCL) 8.98 -0.22: -- Update -- On call, company says it sees no significant improvement in tech spending for six months or more assuming a gradual improvement in the economy... On the positive side, company expects a stronger upgrade cycle this fiscal year... stock at 9.30. 5:56PM Oracle (ORCL) 8.98 -0.22: -- Update -- On call, company addresses database market share concerns. Gartner Group lists IBM slightly ahead of Oracle, but IDC report has Oracle with a 10 pt lead. Basically, the difference results due to different defintions of databases.... stock at 9.24. 5:53PM Oracle (ORCL) 8.98 -0.22: -- Update -- On conference call, company gives little detail for the fiscal year just starting in June. However, company says it "expects positive revenue growth" this year (May 03). This is consistent with Multex consensus which has a +5% forecast... management says it has no plans to downsize the company... visibility remains limited...stock at 9.17. 5:45PM Oracle (ORCL) 8.98 -0.22: -- Update -- On conference call, company guides lower for Q1 (Aug) as it sees EPS of $0.07 vs Multex consensus of $0.09... Q1 should continue to be a tough environment... stock at 9.07. The btb numbers are not released until immediately after the close of the after hours market. They were better than we expected but it appears that even the good news from ORCL was tempered by their future expectations. We are in warnings season. One step forward and two steps back. JMHO RtS

To: t2 who wrote (3554)	6/18/2002 10:17:24 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95640

<<How do these numbers impacting semi equipment stocks?>> I think the numbers are positive and a good sign. Plotted on the curve, which Gottfried, I'm sure,<gg> will be doing shortly, shows a continuation of the upward trend for the past many months. However, having said that, both the Bookings number and the Billings number are still quite small and have a long way to go to show a "robust" semi-equip sector. Going back to 1995/96 data, Bookings numbers for several months were in the 1.5B area. The same sort of performance occurred in 1997, and in the year 2000, numbers were between 2.5 and 3B for several months. Barring any real calamities in the world macro economics, the upward trend should continue for many months in the future to get back to normal levels, but the slope of the recovery curve could be rather shallow compared to past recoveries. We will have to see how that unfolds as events move forward. Don