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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tushar Patel who wrote (166554)	6/18/2002 9:57:19 PM
From: wanna_bmw	Respond to of 186894

Tushar, Re: "In a follow-up conference call, the company [AMD] also said it's likely to lose some of the market share it has gained over the preceding couple of quarters" Actually, this doesn't surprise me. I was looking at their recent filings, and I'm willing to make a prediction. edgar-online.com Revenue from flash memory was $160M last quarter, and $196M the quarter before that. With "sequential growth" in this area, it isn't likely to exceed $200M, but it might be more realistic to expect $190M. Their other IC products divisions has continued to sell around $50M over the last couple quarters, and their foundry revenue has been $12M and $2M, respectively. Overall, non-processor revenue is trending towards $250M. If we expect AMD to hit the high end of their guidance (generous), then that leaves $450M for PC Processor revenue. In terms of average selling prices, we know that AMD achieved $85 this past quarter. Last year, ASPs dropped to $60 when their best selling 1.4GHz Athlon sold online for under $100. I don't think ASPs could have dropped that far this time, both because of their stronger mobile mix, and because of their desktop prices, which included several high end skus above $100. At the minimum, I expect a $70 ASP. With a projected revenue of $450M for PC Processors at an ASP of $70, that means unit sales will have dropped to 6.4M. I believe Intel's unit sales will drop, too. The midpoint of the revised revenue forecast was $6.35B, but they likely guided low. Still, if demand continues to be poor, they may hit this midpoint. That $430M drop would be a 6.5% drop from their previous revenues, and a 7.5% drop from their Intel Architecture Group revenue (assuming Intel's other groups remain constant). Intel also mentioned that their processor mix was trending towards more low end parts, which would affect ASPs. Given lower ASPs and only a 7.5% drop in revenue, it's hard to believe that Intel's unit volumes could have declined more than 7%, but for the sake of argument, let's assume the environment worsens, and they are down by 10%. Last quarters unit volumes for Intel were said to be 34M. A 10% loss puts them at 30.6M. If AMD is at 6.4M, then that gives them 17.3% of the market, which is below the ~19% that the market research firms estimate today. And given some generous assumptions on my part, the actual percentage may be much lower. wbmw