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To: John who wrote (173731)	6/19/2002 5:38:57 AM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 436258

Great post. DAK

To: John who wrote (173731)	6/19/2002 7:10:04 AM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 436258

John: Excess capacity sure is a problem, and it will become even more of a market driver as we go forward. With respect to how it gets sorted out, you are quite right that "consolidation" is going to become a major consideration. Personally, I expect more "asset sales following bankruptcy procedures" rather than takeovers. As stock prices fall, there won't be quite the impetus to buy others with one's own "inflated" paper and buying a company when things get tough isn't wise as there are usually too many hidden cans of worms. Buying the assets after bankruptcy is the time-honored way to solve the problem and the price paid is always rock bottom. I note that Canada's best at this game, Bombardier, just made the decision yesterday to "pass" on Dornier. I bet Bombardier buys the assets after the bankruptcy..... and for peanuts. Best, Earlie

To: John who wrote (173731)	6/19/2002 12:07:33 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

John, a most excellent post. There are still WAYYYYY too many tech companies, which will keep them fighting like mad for what little market is actually left ("two bald guys fighting over a comb", as it were). There is also massive over-capacity in the financial services arena (mutual funds, investment banks, mortgage lending) which will need to be consolidated. Also, note that financial services is the largest user of tech products; so the second derivative of the financial services business getting smaller is an even smaller market for tech. Cheers