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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GraceZ who wrote (81203)	6/19/2002 9:33:09 AM
From: Ron Dior	Respond to of 99280

<<Yeah, but everybody knows we're in a bear market.>> Chicken little was right after all of these years...... Ron Dior

To: GraceZ who wrote (81203)	6/19/2002 10:38:20 AM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

I don't know that it is. I have been around the biz longer than almost anyone alive, and this has no symptoms of any bear of the past. It has the symptoms of a giant shakeout, a shakeout of a break out which was way overdone. About the only adequate model for the last 5 years comes from da_chief. I believe he claims this is the second count pullback in a major Elliot Wave. If he could see the money flow data I think he'd have more conviction that he's right on the money. The flow - price divergence is reminiscent of what occurred between 9/81 and 8/82. The market internally bottomed 9/81, but then discovered a psychological hole in 1/82. The down side was quite lucrative, more so and easier than what has occurred over the last two years. You could dodge and weave, trade in and out. You couldn't do that over the last two years. You had to hold a portfolio of shorts for the long term to do well. A portfolio of shorts! That is unprecedented over the last 200 years of market history, and it's headed for major disaster. No one succeeds trading on the short side much less investing on the short side. All gains are stripped away one way or the other. Some think you can easily switch from shorting to going long. It doesn't work that way. Your psychology must be in the right direction and usually that means going in the direction opposite to what is obvious and opposite to what everybody knows.