To: Claude Cormier who wrote (5490 ) 6/19/2002 11:58:14 AM From: russet Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6016 FCT seems to be using bigger, already available SOFC's (Solid oxide fuel cell) (from Siemens Westinghouse ) for bigger projects. The big project SOFC market seems much farther ahead in terms of development at this time,...higher margins, few competitors, industrial projects. Miners and processors of Rare earth metals have informed followers of the mineral industries such as us, that they are ramping up production of certain of these metals used in SOFC fuel cells for delivery to fuel cell producers who are said to be ramping up production. I assumed at the time (last March PDAC) that they meant a big project producer, and this could well be, as the residential market seems to be at least a year away from even demonstration units. Ballard has PEM (Proton Exchange Membrane) fuel cells which operate at lower temperatures than SOFC's and use Platinum based membranes instead of Rare Earth based ceramic membranes as a key component in their cells. Ballard is showing signs they are working to build their own fuel cell mobile electrical generators, but they do not have the same ability to generate high heat, so it is doubtful they will be as useful as SOFC's for use as cogenerators of electricity and space heat for residential and commercial buildings. GLE seems to be going after the residential market and has partnered with several natural gas and propane distributers to develop these smaller SOFC units to be used for electricity generation and space heating. GLE's technology seems to have higher power output densities and runs at somewhat lower temperatures than it's competitors giving it a technological leg up, but commercialization is probably some years out and partners, distribution, price, and other marketing concerns (certainly first to market will be a big advantage) will be key to the eventual success in the income statement. FCT and its partners have a lot of demonstration units operating in commercial sites giving them the important first commercialization toehold. I find it hard to guess who the eventual winners will be, but this will be a mass production, lowest cost, highest output race and is an international race as the Europeans and Asians are in it too. Stock prices are getting attractive, and if good news comes a nice bounce could occur, but with commercialization still several years out the rallies will likely not last until demonstration units have been running successfully for some months.