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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chomolungma who wrote (82947)	6/19/2002 4:12:51 PM
From: wanna_bmw	Respond to of 275872

Chomolungma, Re: "But you've just validated my original point, that AMD shareholders seem to take solace in Intel's stock dropping even while their investment is being decimated. Why is that?" It's validated over and over and over and over again. Message 17624705 wbmw

To: chomolungma who wrote (82947)	6/19/2002 5:45:57 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

chomolungma: "Your dream scenario requires that Intel "allow" AMD to be profitable with a 30% market share. You think this is likely? I don't." INTC is no longer in any position financially and/or product-wise to "allow" anyone anything...INTC's current state is very very different from that at any previous time in its history...The $130 billion INTC is verging on red ink for the first time in who knows how long and doesn't have a product lineup going forward that is at high risk to the product lineups soon to be offered by $3 billion AMD... The most probable scenario that I see unfolding is that INTC has no choice but to allow AMD profitable marketshare at 30%...Listen to what you are saying...You are suggesting that current market caps are reasonable given INTC's soon to be inferior products at double the price...You are kidding yourself if you believe the existing market cap ratio of 40 to 1 can be maintained in favour of a company with 7 times the revenues and inferior product lineup...I do hope INTC can stay at a market cap of $130 billion because that would dictate a much, much higher market cap for AMD based upon any reasonable comparative valuation model... Personally, I can see significant convergence of ASP's and significant convergence of market caps over the next year...I just don't see INTC holding onto a market cap 40 times that of AMD over the next 12 months...