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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Bull Market. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (781)	6/19/2002 4:14:21 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1750

Dollar broke support yesterday and gapped down today. Bonds putting new highs.... on the SPX .236 = 1026.86 .382 = 1018.22 Will want to unload everything shortly. Some Commentary: >>"Summary: The stock market was transparently constrained to a narrow range for the entire day. There is a lot of money at stake during options expiration week. The financial industry is going to spend money to prop up the market, if they can. The risk in their strategy lies in the effect of an external shock. The FOMC has a two day meeting on June 25-26. The market continues to have high vulnerability to a crash. The crash potential by June 25 becomes enhanced if the market manipulation continues throughout options expiration week. This is not a safe market to hold long positions without a full hedge. June 25 is a really important date. It is the 1.618 time projection from several major long term waves, which were marked by pivotal market highs and lows. June 25 becomes the most likely date for the end of this phase of the bear market and the most likely date for an extreme low in prices. After that day passes, we need to open our minds to the possibility of a cyclical bull rally within the context of a longer term secular bear market. (This assumes at least partial reconciliation of the market's valuation problem.) June options (triple witch) expiration is on June 21. Assuming the final plunge in market prices is delayed past the triple witching day, the final leg down could come on Tuesday, June 25. After that date, I'll become selectively more bullish. Hopefully, we'll be able to buy ORCL and CSCO in single digits, or QQQ at $25, GE at $25 and IBM at $65. These are examples of the probable dimension of the upcoming decline. (It could be worse, so avoid buying until the “time” has arrived.) At this moment, the time arriving on July 25 looks like the culmination of a summer rally from a deep low made in June."<< Robert Hahn