To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (32676 ) 6/20/2002 6:55:59 AM From: Bilow Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 281500 Hi Nadine Carroll; Fascinating link. He's a very clear thinking writer. (He ignores the moral issues and gets down to the brass tacks.) On his general theory of terrorism (where he redefines the term a bit, but so what, at least he's clear about it):Suppose that you are fighting against a terrorist campaign? How can you win? As with any warfare, there are only three ways: appeasement, extermination, or destruction of enemy morale. Of the three, destroying the morale of the terrorists is the most difficult and it is very rare for it to succeed. Extermination is nearly as difficult. And yet, a combination of extermination and assaults on morale is the approach nearly every country attempts to use when facing a terrorist movement. denbeste.nu This is exactly the situation that Israel is in. The only real question is what level of escalation the Palestinians (with all their allies) will be able to achieve. Re: "The new policy just announced by Israel [June 18th] is that each time there is a bombing, Israel will seize and hold part of the territory currently belonging to the Palestinians. Israel will keep that territory until the bombing campaign ceases. ... I don't know if it will work, but it has a better chance of working than anything else I can think of that is politically possible for Israel to do. It will work better if there's a policy of eviction, assuming that Israel is willing to put up with international condemnation for "ethnic cleansing". We'll know in a couple of days if that is their policy, since it now appears that the Jenin refugee camp is the first seizure. If their goal is eviction and destruction, that's surely where they will start. (Especially since it will be a slap in the face of the UN, who runs that hellhole via the UNRWA. If Israel truly adopts this policy, it will need to signal to the world that it no longer cares about international condemnation.) "denbeste.nu I agree with his analysis of the situation, but I have less hope that it will succeed. The Palestinians are already paying a very high price for the bombing campaign, and yet support for it is at all time highs. Starting up an ethnic cleansing campaign will force the US to dump Israel, just as happened with South Africa. Along the way, the international uproar will tend to hearten the Palestinians. And if there is no ethnic cleansing, then the reoccupation will simply anger the Palestinians more, and provide more convenient (and Geneva Convention sanctioned) IDF targets for their guerillas, thereby tending to improve the Palestinians' situation in the "morality war". Re: "Among the various active choices available, this one is far less cruel and immoral than such options as genocide, or nuking Syria. " This is true. Re: "Which, if this doesn't work, will be the next step Israel will take in this war. " This is not true. Nuking Syria would provide zero benefit to Israel, and would mark the end of the Jewish state. Therefore, they won't do it, but instead will negotiate a more inclusive government. The Germans weren't able to stamp out the French resistance despite having a much larger propensity to use the general revenge tactics we're talking about here. It's my expectation that only the wholesale killing of civilians would put enough fear into the Palestinians to make a sufficiently large number of them decide that they will "fight no more forever", and will, in addition, stop anyone who says otherwise. Despite the IDF's recent analysis of the lessons that the Germans learned while operating against ghettoes (in Warsaw), I do not believe that the Israelis will be able to be brutal enough to make headway against the Intifada. So far, everything that Israel has done has been completely counterproductive. There are problems with no solution. This is not a new situation. Everything the South Africans did was similarly ineffective. -- Carl