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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (6591)	6/19/2002 9:26:28 PM
From: tom pope	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

IMCL is now a world unto itself, and can be ignored (it's already done its damage.) GENZ will likely be seriously negative in the immediate short term, though. Just when the BTK seemed to be behaving relatively well. Looks like my recent venture into BGEN is going to hit its stop tomorrow, demmit. I remember when it seemed like a decently priced stock in the 50's. I bought and quickly sold some TLAB today (falling knife department). When you look at the the three year chart, you can only ask yourself - what were we thinking back in '00? While I'm not a proponent of TA, the TLAB chart is a good example of where TA might have kept one out of trouble - A neat series of lower high and lower lows in '00 and '01 until it cratered.

To: LLCF who wrote (6591)	6/20/2002 8:54:29 AM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

<Geeez, when will it end> My guess is that it's over at the end of confessional season two weeks from now (this is a prediction from a guy who has been uniformly wrong for months :-(( or more). There are some great bargains for those with the stomach and capital. Unfortunately, my stomach is weak and my capital largely committed. I hope you are in better shape. I would love to see some munches occur by big pharma but the obvious problem is that big pharma, after the BMY/IMCL fiasco, is more risk adverse than at any time in memory. So, the only thing that may start a recovery is the depressed valuations. Stocks like AMGN, MEDI, IDPH and DNA are priced close to their 3-5 year expected growth rate times forward eps. This may attract the GARP crowd. At least, we can hope.