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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: hmaly who wrote (83008)6/19/2002 11:47:49 PM
From: tejekRespond to of 275872
 
Ted Re... Sure AMD has problems but so does INTC.<<<<
I have read most of the posts for the day, and it seems that no one has made a connection with one of the main reasons for the bad warning.

If you recall, they said last night that AMD had announced at its 10-02 CC, that AMD had sold more to the OEMs than the OEMs had sold. In other words, AMD stuffed the market. Why, because that CC was Jerry's swan song. Secondly, this also was Hectors first. It is likely that AMD's last 2 quarters were worse than reported, but because of the stuffing of the channel, to make Jerry go out in style, there was a huge overhang for this quarter. Being Hector's first, he also wanted to get the bad news out early, and may have helped along the bad quarter, in order to make subsequent quarters look good. Why do I say this?


Your theory makes sense. For the first time in several years, people are upset with AMD in the way they would be back when I first learned of the company in 1998; meaning that AMD has deceived in some way.

In addition, the size of the shortfall from their prior guidance would also indicate some sort of channel stuffing or maybe a sharp drop off in demand. Having said that, why didn't AMD drop their guidance at mid quarter? That would have been the obvious time since Sanders was technically gone and they were far enough in the quarter to have some visibility.

The other possibility is they were hoping for a back end loaded quarter and by mid June knew that wasn't about to happen. Having said all that, I thought the stock held up surprisingly well today.

ted