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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Berney who wrote (37200)	6/20/2002 8:53:21 AM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Berney, "I really have to differ that 'technicals matter more than the fundamentals.'" I know my statement would be tough for some people to swallow. But let me see if I can put some light onto why I believe it is true. First of all let me say that I am not a fundamental guy. I did dabble with that approach years ago but had no luck. Yet, my own inability has nothing to do with my logic, guys like Warren Buffett have proven how successful that approach can be when done correctly. But wasn't it also W.B. that said that he did buy any tech because he doesn't understand them. But I'm sure there are some folks out there that do understand where tech is going (personally, I don't know any). But you have to admit with the implosion in the compx these past two years and the lives of guys like George Gilder who talked a real good game, many of our strongest beliefs have been shattered. What should illustrate my point more than anything would be for us to step back over the past two years to everytime AMAT was upgraded or some other stock ran hard on perceived good news or even the initial news on ORCL. Whether that news was enough to drive the stocks for days, wks, or mnths really doesn't matter, it has been the technicals that have ultimately dictated where these companies are going. That's why guys like myself, and I know I'm not alone, have said throughout those ramp jobs that the longer term trends we're still pointing down and here we are today. Now forget about all the CEO rhetoric for a second and think about all the positive news recently on the economy: productivity, manufacturing, housing, consumer spending, the 11 rate reductions by the FED should that should have kicked in by now,,,,, besides all the countless economists/analysts/market timers/fund managers that have used those numbers to make their case for higher equity prices and we still have a market that is driving lower. Often enough, much of the fundamentals that ultimately drive prices are under the radar screen yet to be discovered. The middle east is a perfect example. The statement that the market is always right, is so true. My own experience tells that me that TA offers much in the way of leveling that playing field. Just my opinion. Good trading. SO