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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: YxY who wrote (82226)	6/20/2002 1:32:34 PM
From: Bruce A. Thompson	Respond to of 99280

Update on the U.S. Dollar By Bernie Schaeffer 6/19/2002 11:40 AM ET Just under a month ago, my colleague Al Schwartz penned an observation wherein he asked if the U.S. Dollar Index (DX/Y - 110.17) would soon be violating its long-term uptrend. In the article, Mr. Schwartz noted that the currency had been enjoying a pattern of higher highs and higher lows over the past 2-1/2 years. If the DX/Y were to breach the level of its September 2001 low, it would break this trend. Quicker than you can say "preemptive strike," the index did just that. At the beginning of this month, the dollar dropped below the 112 mark, site of its September low and a region of resistance in April 2000. So where to now? Fans of the greenback still have hope, as the DX/Y appears to be clinging to additional support levels. The index is currently hovering around the 110 mark. This round-number level has served as support to the currency index at low end of its two-year trading range, as shown in the chart below. Moreover, the DX/Y is perched atop its 40-month moving average. Since surging above this trendline in January 1997, the dollar has not faced a single monthly close below this ascending trendline. Odds suggest that the index will continue to cling to these levels, at least in the short term. However, don't bet your bottom dollar on it … a break of the 110 mark and the 40-month moving average could be huge, leading to a rapid decline in the currency.