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Technology Stocks : Harmonic Lightwaves (HLIT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris Belk who wrote (4041)	6/25/2002 8:23:52 PM
From: tech101	Respond to of 4134

Cable companies in the business game? You bet! By Daniel Briere and Beth Gage Cable companies are not considered a serious threat by telcos, at least not on the commercial customer front. Granted, in consumer broadband services (i.e., DSL and cable modems), the multicable system operators' subscribers continue to outnumber the telco customers by 2-to-1. At least for the short term, cable companies seem to be setting their sights on picking off residential telephone lines. But that does not mean telcos should discount the potential threat cable companies present to their enterprise business. Activities on the cable standards front are setting the stage for the MSO to target business customers with a wide range of IP-based services, including IP telephony, multimedia conferencing, telecommuter services and other integrated multimedia applications. The specifications that enable this are known as Packet Cable and DOCSIS. The DOCSIS 2.0 standard facilitates streaming and peer-to-peer applications. The latest interim Packet Cable spec enables communications between Packet Cable zones, which can be either within a single MSO network or between different operators' networks. Packet Cable- and DOCSIS 2.0-compliant equipment is a year or so from coming to market. But DOCSIS 1.1 equipment is available now, and that may be plenty for MSO to get their foot in the door. Current cable equipment supports multiple levels of quality of service, enhanced security, and it offers more flexibility for the network operators. Those wanting to bury their heads in the sand may say "MSO have no chance of competing for 'value-added services' like VPNs, conferencing, or even video streaming customers-they are already several years behind on basic VPNs." While that is certainly true, it is not reason enough to ignore the possibilities. Value-added services are key to competing in the business market, even the small business market where cable hopes to make its mark. There is a growing number of small branch and remote workers in the U.S. By 2005, In-Stat expects more than 60% of the workforce to be considered remote. These remote workers need secure access to larger corporate facilities and frequent communication with others to ensure a sense of corporate identity. Many larger technology-savvy corporations, such as Cisco, Nortel and IBM have long used streaming media for training and executive addresses to employees, customers and outside analysts. Joe's Barbershop may never need to host a multimedia conference, but Joe, product architect, will certainly need that capability if he is remote from his co-workers. The main problem with existing services for companies who do not own large corporate intranets is the quality of the service. Streaming video is subject to frequent blackouts during which the user wonders if the connection or speaker is lost in the ether. Speakers usually appear to speak in another language, with English dubbed in and out-of-synch with lip and facial movements. Abrupt jumps or garbling of a single syllable word such as "not" can really change the meaning of a communication. Due to the lack of quality, the intrepid souls using these services should be thought of as early adopters. The cable service operators have an opportunity to change the reputation and the reality of these services for remote workers. By laying the groundwork with appropriate standards and focusing on service quality before launching, the cable companies could come out with a service that is noticeably different than that offered by today's IP service providers. Then they can begin to seriously compete for enterprise customers as the larger market for value-added services enter a major growth stage. nwfusion.com

To: Chris Belk who wrote (4041)	6/25/2002 9:03:17 PM
From: Czechsinthemail	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4134

HLIT has been dropped through the floor. Though I think there is likely to be some kind of write-off related to Adelphia, they suggested recently that it isn't likely to be huge (Adelphia represented about 5% of last quarter's revenues). Other aspects of the business seem to be on track. It is possible they may miss estimates for this quarter, but probably not by much. Going into 2H02, they have a busy business time awaiting. It may be even more so to the extent that business has been deferred from this quarter to next. At this point, I think the stock has sold off enough that virtually any substantive news will produce a relief rally. Until then, the stock may continue to be punished in the absence of definitive news that can help clear the fear and negativity engendered by a plunging stock price. It's a nasty market climate. But at some point, this stock will do a dramatic jack-in-the-box and move much higher very quickly.