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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (82767)	6/21/2002 10:24:17 AM
From: Mark Johnson	Respond to of 99280

......scenario..............scenario..............scenario..............scenario..............scenario..............scenario..............scenario..............scenario..............scenario..............scenario..............scenario........LOL.....

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (82767)	6/21/2002 10:26:53 AM
From: Jeffrey S. Lillie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev, If this weren't Triple witching Friday I would say that the highs are in for the day. Being that it is and anything can happen, I suppose we could go higher. Your take on balance of today would be appreciated. Jeff

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (82767)	6/21/2002 10:41:49 AM
From: Mao II	Respond to of 99280

As a percentage of disposable income, consumer debt service payments are at the high end of the range of 6-9 percent, but nothing particularly out of the ordinary, according to fed data going back 25 years. M2

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (82767)	6/21/2002 10:43:30 AM
From: public_heel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Ze'ev - depression... There could be several triggers to a depression, but I think the most likely is terrorism. If the terrorists abandoned their grandiose dreams of massive strikes against the U.S., and just stuck to economy-ruining stuff (suicide bombers in malls and resorts, perhaps one or two passenger jets taken out) I think that could cause a rippling malaise (and accelerated flight of foreign funds) that could end up in depression.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (82767)	6/21/2002 11:20:28 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev: Do you buy into the current government employment numbers and GDP numbers? Both have been held up to serious and well deserved ridicule (no longer "unemployed" if you have fallen off the list because you have run through your unemployment benefits and a GDP that is grotesquely exaggerated by "hedonic pricing" and "chained dollar" calculations?). If you do, or if we agreed to use those numbers to define a depression, then I doubt we would ever make it into a depression, irrespective of actual economic events. (g) For me, a depression is three things: - most debt paper gets sent to money heaven. - deflation crunches both prices and demand. - unemployment rises to levels that really hurt. We will know it is here when it arrives, without needing to define it, and we are likely to have an answer either way before the spring. Best, Earlie