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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elmer who wrote (83210)	6/21/2002 1:59:39 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 275872

RE:"I didn't expect AMD to announce such a huge shortfall. I knew they weren't doing well when Intel lowered expectations but I didn't expect this. There just isn't anything on the horizon to prop them up. They are hopelessly behind NW in a slow market and with inventory building up who are they going to sell to? ASPs keep dropping and the blood keeps flowing. A potential flash recovery will only slow the flow. No significant volume for next generation hammers until well into next year means red ink for essentially as far as the mind can reasonably project. I hope you won't hold me to a standard of being a great predictor. I'm not. It's just that the water's coming in and I'm heading for the life boat." I think you've got it. AMD needed to work 24/7 to get Hammer out. They need it now. It ain't ready. K7 has fallen too far behind NW EVEN with the quantispeed rating (sorry Joe). AMD could not put 512k on the t-bred because they never could put a large cache on die. AND if they did it would have made things even worse for T-bred because it could have ended up having a hard time scaling as high as the existing .18/.13u hybrid Palomino. The law of big numbers does suggest that 512k would have looked nice but it still takes a backseat to raw Mhz or quantispeed as far as marketbility is concerned. AMD didn't need another hard to manufacture low binning chip like the K6-III. They need the new design...and they need it to scale well... You're right about bleeding red for a while. If they don't it will only be because they somehow reduced manufacturing costs because it sure doesn't look like ASPs are going to rise too much. Jim