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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (83244)	6/23/2002 8:14:45 PM
From: Mani1	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Re <<When do you think the bottom will hit, and how low do you think things can go?>> I think we are close, the bottom is within 100 NASDAQ points and within 3 weeks. What is that based on? First the "news" that there will not be a second half recovery is now common knowledge. Anyone with any insight in IT or semi's should have known this for months. Also, we are getting to a level of bearishness that is encouraging. I would love to see a few more down days and then a selling climax, but I am not holding my breath. The warning season is almost over, and in a few weeks we will see earnings that should not be as bad as feared. My main point was that neither AMD nor INTC could do well if they are swimming against the current. AMD and INTC are in similar positions and due to the recent CPU power saturation, margins of old days are gone for good. I don’t think that 60% margin days for Intel will ever come back. And AMD needs to figure out how to make money with ASP of $80. I don’t think the SEMI will lead the market in recovery. I think a big surprise and spoiler will be next months BTB, which is a 3 months rolling average. I expect it to be around 1.2 which is a DECLINE compared to last month. Yes it does show growth, but still a decrease in the pace of growth, which the market will not like. But perhaps that only hurts the equipment guys and leave the rest alone. I do base some of trading strategy on this guy who has been awfully good lately. Here is his profile. Also here is some of my recent posts that reflects some of my recent trading patterns. I don't post much any more so they were easy to find. Message 17610241 Message 17515244 Message 17499417 Message 17474443 Message 17469637 Mani