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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (3595)	6/21/2002 11:49:06 PM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

Does book value include Goodwill or not? If it does include: VTSS, AMCC, LSI +1.50 left to go, GSPN ..........

To: Return to Sender who wrote (3595)	6/21/2002 11:50:42 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 95530

Hi RTS, I have used my price/nav as a replacement for the traditional price to book, since I believe that the book value usually inflates the true reflection of the companies value under fire sale, breakup or merger conditions. Here are the revised price/nav for the wireless companies I have posted about previously (Note: I am using the same prices from the post you referenced to calculate these figures and the same NAV calculation from my May 21 tabulation. I will revise this table after July earnings are released): symb price/nav exar 1.71 rfmd 3.25 tqnt 0.97 anad 1.29 ahaa 0.95 gspn 1.38 cnxt 3.07 cltk 0.92 nav = net asset value (removes goodwill, reduces invt + a/r, and other "questionable" assets) The above numbers should be used as a starting point, not an end-all be-all valuation. Anything below 1 is pointing out that there is (most likely) a serious discount being placed on the company by the market and it should be considered for a "value" long position. (Note that GSPN came out this week and stated that revenue expectations have been cut in half for the current quarter. Obviously, GSPN's inability to properly forecast the current quarter is disgraceful and is a major factor in why the market is pounding this company's stock.)

To: Return to Sender who wrote (3595)	6/22/2002 6:13:50 AM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

RtS - I continue to form my opinions regarding valuation in this sector based on the price/sales ratio. This gauge seems less open to manipulation and interpretation than others and it seems to be quite generally accepted as an accurate measure of relative valuation within the group and between various historical periods for the sector as whole. I posted this a couple days - or about +10% - ago Message 17609561 Assuming the group average for p/s is now about 3.00, the semi-equipment sector remains substantially over-valued. And with the largest-cap stocks in the group still stratospherically valued (while the main driver of IC revenue - PC sales - is projected to be in the dumps for the foreseeable future i.e. yesterdays downgrades for MU), the odds favor continued weakness in these stocks for quite some time. As I said in that linked post, the equipment sector should probably be rated 'avoid' for the next 6-9 months. Scott Message 17637826