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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (83364)	6/21/2002 11:33:15 PM
From: Chispas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

THANKX, Zeev!!!

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (83364)	6/22/2002 1:05:34 AM
From: jbkelle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev, Where do defense stocks go from here? I sold my LMT today at the close...bought about 20 months ago. Looking for defense to do well over the next few years, but I think LMT has gotten ahead of itself. I'm looking at GE and UTX, searching for niche players with high growth potential (IIVI?). Any thoughts on defense in general? jbk

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (83364)	6/22/2002 6:36:20 AM
From: GTC Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev, I was on vacation last week and part of this week, so trying to catch up with various things. My understanding is that your target intraday bottom for the Nasdaq is "1326 or below", meaning a drop of AT LEAST 114 points (8%) intraday from today's close of 1440. My question is what is the probability, according to your turnips' current perspective, of it being lower, and by how much? Regarding the Dow, you said, "I have a target low for the year of 7500 to 8000". Looking at the 5-year Nasdaq chart: bigcharts.marketwatch.com I see a lot of symmetry. I remember in late 1999 reading that charts often fall symmetrically to their rise, but didn't believe that it could happen to the Nasdaq. Here we are below 1500 and it is almost a bell-shaped curve! Looking at the 5-year Dow chart: bigcharts.marketwatch.com It looks like a 10-headed monster with the right shoulder too high. The left shoulder neckline is around 7500 and the right shoulder neckline is around 8000, presumably giving the range that your turnips have for their target. In the last 2-3 weeks, the Dow has made about half the drop to your target, but this still leaves a drop of 13 to 19 percent! Might this happen BEFORE the summer rally? If so, wouldn't the Nasdaq fall more than just 8%, especially considering that it is a Nassacre and not a Dowacre??? The Nasdaq seems to move roughly 40 points for each point move in the QQQ. For grins, I put together the following table of target bottoms for this drop with swags for the probability of each. Nasdaq QQQ Probability ------ --- ----------- 1440 26 100 % 1400 25 90 % 1360 24 75 % 1320 23 60 % 1280 22 40 % 1240 21 20 % 1200 20 10 % < 1200 < 20 < 5 % Obviously this is just a swag, but since we breached 1440/26 today, that is 100%. I gave your turnips a 60% likelihood of being right with their 1326 (QQQ ~23) target. And I think anything less than 20 on QQQ or 1200 on Naz is very unlikely. The other numbers were interpolated from these three points using the "GTC Trader Smoothing Coefficient" (swag). I am not so good at recognizing the whites of the MM's eyes, so I will be watching you and the market as time allows, but do you think the above expectations are reasonable at this point in time? All comments would be greatly appreciated (except from Mark Johnson and the new stalkers on this thread). Thanks, and have a great weekend! Next week should be interesting! Your adoring lapdog <GGG> - Ken

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (83364)	6/30/2002 10:05:11 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 99280

Delete, duplicate

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (83364)	6/30/2002 10:05:53 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

A little while ago (5-11-2001), in response to Mish's question on the Dow possible low (I have a target low for the year of 7500 to 8000), I gave a list (#reply-17455722) of the max expected hits for each Dow stock, I probably should have listed the then current prices, so I am reproducing this list with the then current prices, (the Dow was just around 10,000 then May 10th) as well as the target max hits (in parenthesis), I have now added the low (in square brackets) since then and the current price: AA (- 11) $34.99, [$30.17], $33.15; AXP (- 19) $41.50, [$34.53], $36.32; T (- 4) $13.71, [$9.09], $10.70; Hit; BA (-12) $43.63, [$41.45], $45.00; CAT (- 7) $52.81, [$45.80], $48.95 Hit; C (-12) $43.35 [$36.00], $38.75; KO (-12) $56.36, [$52.95], $56.00; DIS (- 4) $23.15 [$18.45], $18.90; Hit; DD (-6) $45.40, [$41.75], $44.40; EK (-10) $34.30, [$28.15]$29.17; XOM (-5) $38.96, [$38.50] $40.92; GE (-7) $30.65, [$28.11], $29.05; GM (-15) $66.20, [$50.00], $53.45;Hit HPQ (-8) $19.26,[$14.00], $15.28; HON (-10) $37.85, [$33.97], $35.23; HD (-7) $45.50, [$34.90], $36.73Hit; IBM (-25) $79.68, [$67.25], $72.00; IP (-8) $42.81, [41.50], $43.58; INTC (-5) $27.01, [$17.45], 18.27, Hit; JNJ (-6) $61.85, [$52.00], $52.26, Hit; MCD (-4) $29.40, [$27.87], $28.45; MRK (-12) $55.81, [$47.60], $50.64; MSFT(-10) $50.05, [$49.17], $54.70; MMM (-16) $126.90, [$119.38], $123.00; JPM (-10) $35.00, [$30.15], $33.92; MO (-3) $54.90, [$40.35], $43.68 Hit; PG (-10) $92.40, [$86.42] $89.30; SBC (-6) $30.45, [$27.85], $30.50; UTX (-10) $68.75, [$63.90], $67.90; WMT (-10) $53.66, [$52.95], $55.01. So far, eight of these have hit, T, CAT, DIS, GM, HD, INTC, JNJ and MO. And we are only at mid year and only six weeks from the start. Zeev