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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paul_philp who wrote (83373)	6/22/2002 12:32:41 AM
From: James Calladine	Respond to of 99280

ABOUT SEMI EQUIP COMPANIES <<<And a weekend contest: who is the anonymous source? Should be easy enough to identify from the info given. thestreet.com '...troubles are very much in the present for the semiconductor capital equipment business. Now we'll hear from a reader who has been intimately associated with the sector nearly since its inception: "I wrote you sometime back about the (poor) outlook for the semi-equipment stocks, at least as seen by one old pro with 40 years as a semi-equipment CEO. I spent the day listening to the latest market analysis by some really well-qualified experts and thought I'd update you. The 'spring thaw' in semiconductors got some of the chip factories running at quite reasonable capacities (many in the 80%-85% range) as people thought they could plan on (or maybe just hoped for) a business pickup in 2H02. Our own order rate for equipment improved each month of the current quarter, although not enough to declare we were out of the woods." He continues: "However, in the last three weeks, reports from the field have turned very negative as the semiconductor people began to realize the buyers were not buying. If this pattern turns out to be a general industry response, semis probably have another six months of pain, at a minimum. Equipment manufacturers can expect to suffer even longer. Suppliers all along the chain are being pressured into major price concessions." And he concludes: "The long-term effect, based on past experience, is to marginalize the weaker suppliers to such an extent that they exist for a few years as 'zombie companies,' spending nothing on R&D and customer support before sliding into extinction. This downturn is far from over."' >>> Namaste! Jim