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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (3599)	6/22/2002 1:46:05 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95546

TRADABLE LOW MAY BE NEAR, BUT FASTEN YOUR SEATBELTS !! thetechtrader.com By Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader (www.thetechtrader.com) The market had its third very bad day in a row and its fourth decline in a row, and closed very close to the low for the week going away. The Nasdaq 100 closed at the lowest level since January 1998 – that’s 4 ½ years! Obviously, the market continues to make lower lows, as every rally attempt is met by more waves of selling. This morning’s pattern was similar to what we’ve seen often over the last couple weeks. The pattern is to be down early, try a rally which fails, get a morning sell-off, then go into a mid-day consolidation which tries several times to break out and can’t and then rolls over and closes down at the lows for the day. That’s exactly what occurred today. The Dow was down another 177 points, the S&P down 17, Nasdaq 100 down 27, the Nasdaq Composite nearly 24. The SOX index crumbled another 3% today and is now down to 380, which is nearing its September low. The technicals today made a relatively strong showing as the advance/declines were only about 14-18 negative on New York. Believe it or not, as bad a day as it seemed on Nasdaq, there were still 1671 up and only 1739 down. You certainly wouldn’t know it by observing the hi-tech/biotech sectors that continue to get pounded! The up/down volume on New York was still rather poor at about 3-1 negative with a total of over 1.8 billion traded. That’s getting pretty heavy and nearing climactic. Nasdaq volume was near 2 billion, but the up/down was substantially worse with 347 million up and 1.47 billion down. We’ve had almost 3 billion shares of down volume in the last two days on Nasdaq, which is very heavy downside volume and getting near climactic levels, as well. The Nasdaq VXN (volatility/fear gauge) was up another 1.37 and reached over 60 today. That’s starting to get into the range of fear that traders usually show near important lows. But it’s not quite there yet as we want to see a reading closer to 70-80 or even higher. The NYSE VIX got up into the low-mid 30’s, but we’ve seen 40-50 or more at important lows before. The decline here may be setting up a selling climax and we could be getting that as early next week. That’s certainly what it looks like –- we’ll have to see what gives there. The NDX & DJIA have taken out its recent lows. The S&P 500 is still hanging in there, but it’s just above the prior week’s lows when it reached down to 981. Today’s low was about 985, closing at 989. So it’s one of the last bastions of relative strength left and there’s still a positive divergence there should the markets reverse on Monday. But there’s no getting away from it, the market is under severe selling pressure and psychology is becoming very negative. I believe that will result in a VERY tradable low early next week. Good trading! Harry Harry Boxer is an award-winning, widely syndicated technical analyst and author of The Technical Trader (www.thetechtrader.com), which features a real-time diary of Harry's minute-by-minute trades and market insights, plus annotated technical charts & stock picks, based on Harry's 30 years experience as a Wall Street technical analyst. Don, I have an interesting chart set up here for MU. I think 16.39 should hold but the congestion below that area is unclear to me for ultimate support. stockcharts.com[l,a]mhclyiay[d19950101,20020622][pb50!b200!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!Uk14!Ul14!Lp14,3,3!Lf!Lc20!Lah12,26,9]&pref=G RtS

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (3599)	6/22/2002 4:01:10 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95546

MU reports on Tuesday after the close. DRAM price fixing concerns despite lowered earnings estimates due to falling DRAM prices may help us towards a short term bottom. I just don't see how MU can come up with good forward guidance right now: DRAM probe widens as product prices fall in Q2 amid weak demand siliconstrategies.com By Mark LaPedus Semiconductor Business News (06/20/02 09:22 a.m. EST) SAN JOSE -- Amid a sudden drop in memory prices, the U.S. Department of Justice here has widened its investigation over alleged “anticompetitive practices” among leading DRAM makers. South Korea's Hynix Semiconductor Inc. late on Wednesday confirmed that its U.S. subsidiary received a subpoena from the U.S Justice Department, as part of a major investigation over alleged price fixing among leading memory vendors. Reports also surfaced that Japan's Elpida Memory Inc. has also received a subpoena. Elpida is a joint DRAM venture between NEC Corp and Hitachi Ltd. And two Taiwan DRAM makers-- Nanya Technologies Corp. and Winbond Electronics Corp.--were also added to the list, according to sources. On Monday, three major DRAM makers--including Infineon Technologies AG, Micron Technology Inc., and Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.--also confirmed that they had separately received subpoenas from the U.S. Justice Department over similar matters (see June 19 story ). The investigation reportedly revolves around an alleged effort among suppliers to influence or fix DRAM product prices. Some charge that major DRAM makers have formed what could be a loosely-organized “cartel” to set or fix product prices amid the downturn in the semiconductor market. The DRAM makers listed in the investigation said they are cooperating with the U.S. Justice Department and denied the alleged charges. Today, Samsung issued a release on the matter. On Monday, Samsung's U.S. chip arm, Samsung Semiconductor Inc. (SSI), was served with a subpoena from the U.S. Justice Department, according to the company. The subpoena asks for certain documents and other records related to DRAM products. The subpoena does not implicate SSI, and SSI is not a target of the investigation, the company claimed. In fact, SSI is in full compliance with U.S. laws, it said. Upon receipt of the subpoena, SSI said it immediately took action to preserve all required documents and other records, and will be cooperating with the U.S. Department of Justice in providing the requested information. For months, however, rumors have been running rampant in Asia concerning price fixing maneuvers among DRAM makers. Some observers believe that major DRAM have conspired to fix prices, reportedly in a move to squeeze out some of the weaker players from Korea, namely Hynix, and possibly Taiwan, including Nanya, according to observers. Still some analysts believe there is still no real hard evidence that DRAM makers have fixed prices. “I haven't heard of any evidence from the OEMs,” said Brian Matas, vice president of market research at IC Insights Inc., a Scottsdale, Ariz.-based research firm. “If there was any price fixing, it wouldn't make any sense right now, given that DRAM prices are so low,” Matas said. After a horrific year in 2001, the DRAM industry saw a slight recovery in the first quarter of 2002, he said. “The DRAM makers were getting killed in the business last year, but prices picked up in the first quarter of 2002,” he said. The average selling price for a 128-megabit SDRAMs jumped from $1.70 in the fourth quarter of 2001, to $3.75-$3.0 in the first quarter of this year, he said. But the typical summer lull has hit the PC industry, which is bad news for DRAM makers. “We've seen a cooling off in the market,” he said. “DRAM prices are back down in the $2.50 range.”