The Palestinians are not a major threat, nor is any single Arab country. Only a coalition of forces might prevail. Of course, that was tried several times since 1948, and each time failed. Remember, the Jews of Israel fought alone, the only thing the United States did was partially subsidize them, in order to alleviate the defense burden, and share intelligence. Nevertheless, they beat the armies of the Arab League repeatedly. Meanwhile, Israel has signed treaties with Egypt and Jordan. Granted, they might be repudiated, but the Arab powers have shown no signs of preparing for war on behalf of the Palestinians, nor has Egypt shown a propensity to renounce the treaty, nor has the Jordanian Crown been seriously threatened due to its peace with Israel, despite a strong Palestinian presence in that country.
The fact is, the most active terrorist groups are threats to the secular Arab regimes as much as to Israel (Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Muslim Brotherhood, Al- Quaida, and so on), and not just those like Egypt. In North Africa, they have tried to overthrow the Moroccan Crown and the Algerian government. In the Middle East, they are hostile to the Syrian and Iraqi governments, insofar as they are considered impious, and to the Saudi regime for being too pro- Western.
Additionally, there are regional rivalries that prevent concerted action. Syria and Iraq both aspire to regional hegemony, which is why Syria signed on to the Gulf War. Iran is hostile to Iraq, with which it fought a bloody war in the '80s, and stirs up trouble among the Shi'ites in southern Iraq. Iran also aspires to wrest the holy cities of Mecca and Medina from the Saudis and put them in Shi'ite hands. The Kurds would gladly attack both Iraq and Iran, if their attentions were diverted, in order to get Kurdistan. The North African Arab states are pretty sick of the Arab- Israel conflict, and mainly care about economic growth, as they lose population through immigration to Europe. Generally, there is apathy, hostility and rivalry, different levels of military readiness (most Arab armies are pathetic), and a long- standing failure to coordinate. It is hard to see this changing any time soon.
Finally, Israel is known to have a nuclear arsenal, although the number and strength of its bombs is a matter of speculation, and no one wants to be on the cutting edge to find out. That is one of the reasons that Saddam Hussein has been so eager to develop weapons of mass destruction, to try to equalize with Israel. The Israelis, of course, do not fool around. The last time Iraq was on the verge of gaining enough fissionable material to make a bomb, they had a preemptive raid. One can be sure that Baghdad will be turned to dust well before Jerusalem, if it comes to that.
All in all, then, without factoring in the United States as a military partner, Israel looks to be in a pretty good strategic position. Add a United States willing to get involved if the situation is particularly hairy, and recalling what happened to Saddam Hussein's "formidable" army in the Gulf War, and it rather looks more like the Palestinians had better realize the untenability of their situation.......... |
