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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (51748)	6/22/2002 9:56:46 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Eric, Being a card carrying GGamer myself <g>, and attempting to apply the game to the broad wireless arena, I look at total revenue generated by equipment manufacturers in the arena, and a major component of that revenue derives from infrastructure and their is no sense in even thinking about the consumer game until the pragmatist decision makers at the carriers open the purse strings and do a major infra spend, which they have started to do, but have not done sufficiently to keep the Lucents, Nortels, Ericssons, and other members of Qualcomm's value chain who derive most of their revenue from infrastructure healthy. I'd like to nominate that as the world's longest sentence. Add to that the fact that it makes a lot of sense is especially admirable. Though the content of the rest of your post was equally up to snuff, the presentatiaon suffered from reasonably short sentences. :) --Mike Buckley

To: Eric L who wrote (51748)	7/28/2002 9:31:38 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Qualcomm Earnings Report Hopefully Eric, slacker and others will comment about this post and add their reaction to the earnings report and conference call. I'm going to highlight just a few bits of information that had the most importance for me. If you want to read a "rough transcription" of the conference call that is very helpful, start with this link: Message 17805020 Revenue increased about 10% year-over-year and sequentially. There aren't a lot of high-tech companies doing that. Free cash flow was terrible, barely positive, and only 4% of revenue. It will be interesting to see if Q4, which was negative last year, will be negative again this year. My guess is that it will be positive. That's because, based on comments in the conference call, I don't expect operating cash flow to be negative again as it was last year. And I expect all interim Pegaso financing to be returned in Q4. The big dollars related to the sale of Pegaso will be the $200 million which I expect to be returned in Q1. So, free cash flow in Q1 which is historically a strong quarter, should be particularly strong next year. I haven't tried to run the numbers in any detail, but I expect that free cash flow in 2002 will be down from Q1. Not good. But I see that trend reversing next year. Eric: Last month (messages 51638, 51639, 51742, & 51744), you and I discussed where wireless data is in the TALC. I'm very impressed by Qualcomm's strong sequential numbers about the 1x chipsets as follows: 1x chipsets Q2: 8 million Q3: 11 million Q4 estimate that is already 95% booked: >15 million This looks to me like crossing-the-chasm stuff, not the tornado. But it's clear to me that it ain't falling into the chasm. It's truly crossing it. Your thoughts? Anyone's thoughts? BREW is the only technology that is being adopted faster than I would have dreamed. It's really unbelievable. In less than two years, there are already more than a million BREW users. They've downloaded more than 8 million BREW apps (an average of about 6 per user). There are 300 BREW apps currently available to users. There are 7 manufacturers selling 19 BREW-enabled handsets with 50 more in development. As an operating system, it's not yet to the chasm but it's fun to watch in real time. Gotta love those wacko early adopters! :) --Mike Buckley