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To: Road Walker who wrote (166883)	6/22/2002 7:46:23 PM
From: John F. Dowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

JF: He is the issue whether in reality or in perception. I think both. Although he follows he seems to be out of phase at precisely the wrong moment when he does something. Hopefully he will do nothing for the next 2 years. Notice even with all the deficit spending their is no crowding out in the debt markets as the long bond is still at historic lows. AG together with oil killed the markets and thence investor confidence as the markets were starved for liquidity. The deficits are necessary because of this Terror thing combined for the need for stimulus. On the other hand people have been scared out of the capital markets because of the plunge that resulted from AG tightening high oil prices and the dotcom burst. People now spend their money on tangibles not on financial instruments that are equity oriented. Everyone points to Enron and the like but these bad actors have been wit us forever. I can't remember a year when their wasn't one whether it be S&L,Pru's bogus drilling programs,Bond Scandal.Long Term Cap ad nauseum. No I truly believe this is a mind thing and the high profile that is being given to Financial News may be the negative catalyst. I personally think it is an attempt by the liberal media to disgrace the current admin and if the markets don't turn around GW is out - you heard it here first. I happen to agree with you with respect to the banks being awash with money and not lending it. They are really all being replenished by the Fed for having f'd up with the dotcoms and the Argentinas of the world. They borrow at the Window and turn around and by GO's. With no inflation they make a great spread with little or no risk. My neighbor is a commercial builder and is in bed with a Senator up here and even with that cache he has to have a project fully rented with signed leases before they will let him pour the foundation. He says they are insane. You will also notice banks hiking their fees every where that they can. Yes I think when the banks get liquid again that we might have a turn around. So the rebound will really be here when we see 1st improving financial institution earnings followed by tech earnings on the rise. And by tech I don't mean the small and mid caps I mean DELL,MSFT,INTC,GE,IBM,MOT,NOK,etc. I really don't know why I am not the Fed Chairman. JFD