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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (83523)	6/22/2002 6:40:55 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 99280

Zeev, I think in the next 10-days, we'll find out we really did have a recession (whenever the revised 2001 GDP numbers come out). I think that was scheduled for the end of June, if I'm not mistaken. There was $90-Billion in personal income that was overstated in the Fed's numbers last year. That was corrected when they received the updated state numbers in April. That's what I read in either the WSJ or Forbes.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (83523)	6/23/2002 4:07:45 AM
From: limtex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

ZH - 1. The market hasn't the faintest idea where its going and that old mantra taking into account the markets behaviour in 99/2000 is simply absurd. 2. The CEOs have even less idea as evidnced by the continual stream of warnings and revised guidance from these overpaid over egoed unremarkable people. 3. We have had a recession on technology. In fact its been near depression and technology is the growth engine ( apart from selling cigarrettes to the kids in the third world). Most of the old economy wasn't providing the big growth numbers of the Clinton-Gore golden years. It was new tech. 4. The economists aren't perfect but they do work on concrete economic performance numbers. GDP growth for instance is a real number, so are most of the slew of regular monthly and quarterly numbers. So is the interest rate and the exchange rate. Economics certainly isn't accurate but it is a reasonable predictor and better for instance than the VIX. 5. My guess is that the there is going ot be increased business activity before the end of the year. Does this include INTC? I don't know. I have never beleived that we could keep increasing PC sales for ever. I guess we can both remember uqite well a time not so long ago when there were NO PC sales at all, not even one!!!!! So maybe the socking up of industry and home is now totoalyl complete and repalcement cycles for PCs have lengthened. I don't think that will last long since three are many new PC apps that require the newer chips and they are huge productivity tools and so my guess is that companies will buy them especailly after 9-11 since the video and video conferencing features save a lot of expense. Then there is wireless. The market has totally chucked wireless out of the window. But it is about to bring about one of those once in a lifetime moments like the introdudctionof the PC. It is happening in Korea and Japan since 1 April and it will happen here in July. Then ther is biotech, another dog today but why. Biotehc didn't just start and invent the automobile and now its over. Biotch wa only given the human genome a couple of years ago. That means it has hardly even begun. I have sadi before that even the most ardent short will pay anything, yes absolutely anything to save his skin if he is diagnosed with a terminal disease. There are more people around today than ever before and most of us are going to die and for most of us death by disease is the most physically painful thing that you can experiece and it is absolutely pertifying. All that makes me believe that biotech will be a profitable area for there rest of this century. Same sort of thing appleies to a number of areas. So where is all this growth? Beats me!!!! But it stands to reason that it must be there. Best, L