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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (3633)	6/23/2002 11:42:39 AM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95526

Could the market put in a bottom without a spike above 50? Yes of course it could: stockcharts.com[l,a]mhclyiay[d19950101,20020622][pb50!b200!d20,2!i!f][vc60][iUb14!Uk14!Ul14!Lp14,3,3!Lf!Lc20!Lah12,26,9]&pref=G The sad truth is we don't know what to expect. When I was looking for the VIX to spike up to 26 I was looking for a short term tradable bounce in the market. One day wonders aside we never really got any sustained rally have we. With only three trips above 50 for the VIX on a chart going back to the beginning of 1995 maybe I am wrong to be so negative and expect another one to point out the bottom. Funny thing is Scott now thinks I am still too positive. Anyway, I am trying to find the real bottom. I think the hard evidence of past bottoms suggests that the VIX will spike back over 50 before that happens. Perhaps all the way above 60 but maybe not if we avoid another major exogenous shock. Maybe we will see a double bottom at the levels seen last September for the NASDAQ and the SOX. Maybe we will need another hugely negative world situation to get to the real bottom. In the meantime we may get a short term bounce but I don't believe it will be a bottom unless we get a huge volume reversal with a spike of the VIX back above 50 perhaps as high as 60. RtS