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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (12957)	6/23/2002 10:57:17 AM
From: dvdw©	Respond to of 19219

The US stock markets are being driven by the Hedge Fund industry. Not the dollar, or anything else for that matter. Right now positive fundamental performance is greeted with a sigh and a less severe beating than the general market is given. The Market was set up for the current events by the huge increase in supply created in the 1997 through 2000, when the Nifty 150 was all anyone cared about. Almost all of those companies had huge increases in their floats, bringing us to the present where CSCO has 7 BN shares in the market. Look closely at the Splits in all companies your investing in, distribution is assured by these conditions as the Hedge funds keep borrowing from this pool selling short creating the conditions of general abandonement by investors. We all know that in an uptrend, playing liquidity is easy, as it is here and now during this bear period. Being short against the backdrop of increased supply in these liquidity issues is the correct position of the day. Supply and demand rule the market, with the help of Obfuscation, Specialists manage the current trend, working for their clients to get control of scarcity and to shed abundance.. My capitulation came near a year ago, when it finally dawned on me the Market I had been long committed to wasnt coming back. So I recast my entire portfolio, doing intensive fundamental analysis of groups and sectors away from those who had just completed their Liquidity creation periods. TRW is nearly the size of CSCO yet has less than 1 % of CSCO's float. There are whole segments of the stock market that manifest these same conditions with positive forward fundamentals and are great places to put your money. While people scream about price to sales ratios over 4.00 I find companies everyday where they are trading under a dollar on more positive outlooks than ever before. I see a new tech group emerging these stocks can best be characterized as precious, their like diamonds sitting in beds of coal. Forward fundamentals are really all that matters. Identify the changes in the landscapes of the various sectors and then look to scarcity, where smart money is certainly ahead of you in arriving, these plays are only beginning what will be multi year moves. My reconstructed portfolios are up substantialy, and while their metrics are pointing toward the sky, as an investor you must recognize their retracements during these ferocious sell offs for what they are, Hedge funds and specialists know that they can paint a negative picture of the market for a long time, so many shares were created during the boom that Investors arriving at the door wishing to get out, can be extended to great lengths. Smart money is both long and short this market, as they grind down the market, they are wrestling for control of scarcity of shares in companies that will be setting tomorrows agenda. This whole market is about Recalibration. You need to have expanded awareness of the conditions manifesting individual stocks. Know the difference in the present conditions of your investments, and act accordingly.

To: t2 who wrote (12957)	6/23/2002 10:57:18 AM
From: Killswitch	Respond to of 19219

Well no doubt the dollar decline is one of the things driving this decline from earlier this year. I totally agree on that. That issue though is really orthogonal to my point about the Rydex asset levels. If the people in those NDX funds had all just held their positions from what existed in the 9/11 time region, then now that we are back to those levels those funds should be reporting identical asset levels to the 9/11 region. The fact that they have changed significantly is proof I think that sentiment has shifted even further towards bearishness among the average Rydex investor. If Rydex can be taken as a proxy of the general market sentiment, this implies that at some point in the future for sentiment to get back to more "normal" levels we may have to rally even more than we did (percentage wise/time wise) after 9/11. Of course Rydex does not tell us when this will happen, it could be a year or more before we finally get something really sustainable. But at least at this moment it is telling us the ODDS have grown to the point of increased risk to shorts and lowered risk to longs for probably the next couple months (my guess).