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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ChrisJP who wrote (83725)	6/23/2002 7:40:54 PM
From: DebtBomb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

;-) we're close, IMHO, they're dropping like flies. Still lot's of uncertainty out there though. And, it's a stock pickers market, no doubt. Lot's of stuff is going to go BK, IMO.

To: ChrisJP who wrote (83725)	6/23/2002 7:53:24 PM
From: Rajkea	Respond to of 99280

This post was taken from the Thresholdtrading board. Does not look good for Monday. We spoke a bit about this on Friday, and i was under the impression that delta hedgers might unwind short positions early in the week following last weeks relatively steep decline in the indices,... causing a small relief rally Monday or Tuesday...this commentary i just read sez otherwise...interesting and compelling statistics. Technical analysis is all about risk and reward, and finding the situations where probablity leans the farthest direction in your favor Whenever the stock market closes lower on both Thursday and Friday of options expiration, it's a short-term danger sign for the first 1-2 days following expiration. Those of you who've been around for some time probably remember the '87 crash. What you may not remember is that the market was headed sharply lower during the week preceding the crash, and that the crash occurred on the day right after options expiration. Below is a list of all instances over the past fifteen years in which the S&P closed down on both Thursday and Friday of options expiration. Note that in the majority of cases, the S&P posted another lower close (below Friday's level) within two sessions... 06/21/02 - ??? 02/15/02 - Lower S&P close on Monday 09/21/01 - No lower close 06/15/01 - Lower S&P close on Monday 12/15/00 - Lower S&P close on Tuesday 09/15/00 - Lower S&P close on Monday 05/19/00 - Lower S&P close on Monday 02/18/00 - Lower S&P close on Thursday 01/21/00 - Lower S&P close on Monday 05/21/99 - Lower S&P close on Monday 08/21/98 - Lower S&P close on Thursday 06/19/98 - No lower close 05/15/98 - Lower S&P close on Monday 12/97/97 - Lower S&P close on Tuesday 10/17/97 - Lower S&P close on Friday 07/18/97 - Lower S&P close on Monday 02/21/97 - Lower S&P close on Thursday 02/16/96 - Lower S&P close on Monday 12/15/95 - Lower S&P close on Monday 08/18/95 - Lower S&P close on Monday 01/20/95 - Lower S&P close on Tuesday 11/18/94 - Lower S&P close on Monday 10/21/94 - Lower S&P close on Monday 04/15/94 - Lower S&P close on Monday 02/18/94 - Lower S&P close on Wednesday 09/17/93 - Lower S&P close on Monday 07/16/93 - Lower S&P close on Thursday 05/15/92 - No lower close 08/16/91 - Lower S&P close on Monday 04/19/91 - Lower S&P close on Monday 08/17/90 - Lower S&P close on Tuesday 04/20/90 - Lower S&P close on Tuesday 12/15/89 - Lower S&P close on Monday 08/19/88 - Lower S&P close on Monday 10/16/87 - Lower S&P close on Monday In 31 of the past 34 occurrences, or 91% of the time stretching back to 1987, the S&P has closed below Friday's level within one week. And in roughly 75% of the cases the S&P posted a lower close within two days, with the most likely day for a selloff being Monday.