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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Larry S. who wrote (672)	7/7/2002 5:43:39 PM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 972

Dan, et al, It appears that you were right when you suggested that we should expect a correction in the price of gold that lasts until August. I didn't find any mention of PMs in Barron's this week except in market statistics. However, I caught Ed Hyman s comments on Rukyser Friday and he suggested that the dollar would fall an additional 20 to 30 percent after a short rally. He didn't mention PMs but such a fall is clearly bullish for them. Equally importantly, he doesn't expect the fall in the dollar to upset the economy or stimulate inflation. In fact, he expects inflation to be ZERO next year. The action in lease rates seem to be consistent with your view. They are still very low for both gold and silver but they have moved up slightly during the past few weeks. However, the 1-mo. rate continues to fall. I still think the low rates indicate a lack of interest in leasing for the carry trade but, for those interested in leasing so that they can sell to hold the price down, leasing may still be important and they may be responsible for the small rise in rates. If so, the trend may be short lived. This past week my spare time was taken up with getting my files and programs into a new computer and I neglected to post the GMI/POG ratio info so it follows for the past two weeks: On 06/27, the Barron's GMI was 450.62 down from the previous week's 487.41. With the POG down slightly at 318.50 (06/28), the ratio was down significantly at 1.42. On 07/03, the Barron's GMI was 425.15 down from the previous week's 450.62. With the POG down at 310.85(07/03), the ratio was down at 1.37. Note that the POG was for the 3rd not the 5th (Friday) would be normal. The ratio a year previously was 1.10. Cheers, Larry