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To: velociraptor_ who wrote (42860)6/24/2002 12:07:36 AM
From: ajtj99  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
It appears a corrective up may have started off the pre-close low on Friday. I don't see it going past NDX 1075 or 1084, however. NDX 1045-1050 seems to be the area you'd want to watch for covering shorts.

TRINQ appears to have reversed, and other indicators are pretty low and need a bit of up to relieve some of the oversold situation. The 10, 15, 30, and 60-minute charts I looked at are all quite cratered, which normally indicates we're in for some sort of relief up (I have a hard time calling anything in this drop a rally).

Fed meetings usually result in long flags during the meetings. With the drop off the high at NDX 1163, we could probably re-trace .382 of the move (to NDX 1081) and build a nice bear flag around NDX 1050 after a spike up to 1084 or 1075. That would allow the rug to be pulled out after the meeting is over with.

A break of NDX 1050 could also be an upside breach of a falling wedge, so that would need to be resolved at a higher level, pointing to the NDX 1075-1084 range also.

Anyway, I'm undecided as to whether I'll close puts tomorrow or not. I'll probably not make a decision until just before the open. If we open flat or slightly up, I may close my puts to re-position at a higher level.