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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (37404)	6/24/2002 4:22:04 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70466

AFTER MIDNIGHT Market Commentary by Toni Hansen June 24, 2002 Friday's session passed in a manner very comparable to that of the day before. The morning open was slow with a slight bit of upside into the 10:15 reversal period. At that point selling set in again, bringing the Nasdaq to new yearly lows at the price support of $26.00 in the QQQ. At that point both the Nasdaq Composite and SP 500 fell into another extremely narrow range through noon and well into the afternoon making risk once again very highs during this time. This trading range broke down only as the bonds closed around 15:00, right in the area of Thursday's afternoon breakdown. This now marks over three days of the intraday downtrend, an uncommon occurrence, although the intraday corrections in terms of time have been longer than you usually see as well and this probably has a lot to do with the trend sustaining itself so long. Right now, the more selling we get, the more hesitant I am on entering even intraday shorts. Daily volume has not really picked up too much in the Nasdaq, although it is starting to in the SPs. The market is also starting to come into Commodity Channel Index support near previous lows in both indexes. Thus, we are starting to see more signs of a short term low coming up. The SP 500 will soon be re-testing the prior week's lows as well. Going into Monday, I'm again watching for intraday reversal potential. Monthly charts do have a little room to move, but not much as they are at support from 1997 highs (early 1997 highs in the Nasdaq Composite and late 1997 highs in the SP500) and 1998 lows. Since these levels are on such a large scale, you have to give them more room before you can consider them breaking since the entire zone at those levels will be the support. Thus, given last week's strong downside I'm hesitant to be doing much buying yet as far as position trades go. Even though SP500 lows from a week ago have not broken, the break in the Nasdaq shows us that the weakness is still pretty strong as many people will be on the disillusioned side, making a correction off the monthly lows difficult until we start to see a lot more volume come in. For that to happen you would look for a spike like we saw last September or in the fall of 1998. Since we have seen three waves of selling off the yearly highs though, and three is common for a trend move, I would expect that the support zone we are coming into will be enough to break the immediate downtrend line on the year, but we have to wait for better signs that the selling is stalling before we act on it. http://www/hardrightedge.com