HERE'S MY NEWSLETTER FROM LAST WEEK...GOOD LUCK ALL...
JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED 16TH OF JUNE 2002
"THE RUBBER BAND IS COILING"
Hello my cyber friends, hope all is well with you and yours...geez it was cold and rainy and not very nice here in the east...wah happened????<g>....The wife and me hit NYC on Thurs on Biz, had lunch at Mon Petit Cafe 62nd and Lex...cute little French Restaurant we love....Their escargot is excellent, as is the Cabernet, Fortant..very nice..if your in the city go there for lunch..it's on me<vbg>...
Well the economic numbers that came in this week spooked the markets, big time...Like the Wizards of Fall Street figured we could grow at 5.6% every quarter?, that all those hefty numbers in the first Q were sustainable?, So while they dipped a bit here from that spectacular Sept lows of last year, the markets went crying under the bed, like little lamby pooos, poor little babies...tsk tsk....Hey we don't need inflation, we do not need the Fed here, and that's exactly what we have..no inflation, no Fed, low interest rates, excellent housing market, and businesses trying to regroup off the worst BIZ downturn in a long long while...
Each company in order to sustain it's market shares had to bite the bullet and cut people and expenses...Meaning the bottom line numbers, NOW?, they will have to ramp up a bit here, re hire old employees back, and spend some of that Cap Ex they have under the very same bed they're hiding under...or?, was it mattress?<g>...Look this year is going to be soft for sure, but inventories are moving lower, and companies will have to begin to let loose shortly to be ahead of the maddening crowd...if you snooze, you lose...
Please do not be miss guided by the very fact that the street is gun shy for a lot of reasons..BUT GREED WILL PREVAIL<VBG>...bet your entire house on it folks...The fund managers HAVE to put those dollars to work, and we are starting to see bargains galore out there...Yeah even some PE's are starting to look realalistic too...hahahahaha...Valuations remember those?...Well?, here they are...We are extremely oversold on every chart of every index I follow...Now what with the OTC and NYSE Bullish Percents in O's and falling, this is no time to INVEST quite yet...BUT, on the other hand, let's see if we get a nice long side tradable rally next week...
There are a ton of Cycle Guru's out there calling for Armageddon during the last week of June around the 25th thru the first of July, but I think we can squeeze a pop here up and into overhead resistance, and then come on down one last time for the test...before that event occurs...So that's what I'm looking for here,a pop from this very oversold short term condition, then sliding back down to clean out the last of the PUKERS...awful word, but when they holler UNCLE we will quietly step up to the plate and play the long side using our leaps and some other strategies as this unfolds...
For those of you in the 2004 leap calls..we will double that position using lowered strike prices to average down the original buy in price...I'll discuss this at length in a separate letter when appropriate...I'll be adding 3-5 more stocks to this list...also in August I believe the 2005's come out then and we'll be diving into some of those too...I do feel the opportunity will present itself for slow growth right thru 2003-2004-2005, we'll be investing for that coming event...Many of you may wish to use IShares or Elf's the holders trust like the QQQ's the SMH or the BBH, there are many ETF's that could be useful for you and me to buy and hold rather than playing individual stocks...I really like this idea...we can use stops, write covered calls, do anything we can just like any other stock...it puts us in the sectors that are beaten down like the BIO's, using the IBB or the BBH and as soon as the sector Bullish Percent reverses up along with the relative strength(RS), then we buy and hold...
As for now? we are daytrading folks, scalping for a living, and really doing quite well...Bruce and me had our first Online Teaching Seminar for 6 people on Friday...It was very very gratifying to hear and listen to each persons goals and hope's and dreams trying to become a trader of the markets..They all wanted to do this for a living, and we're going to help them, thats for damn sure..In fact, after class, we all jumped into EBAY and MSFT and ALL of them made a small profit in each trade thru the close...It's only the beginning...We were high fivin' in the room...I love the markets, and love to help people...It's been that way all my life...and while I may not be right all the time trying to TIME the markets,, as a scalper, I make money..every trade is documented, with entry prices, stops, and exits...no bull folks, it's live and real time...I stick my face out there all the time, because I have the confidence, the skill, and the emotional control, despite my outward demeanor<VBG>...I have always been fiercely loyal, and brutally honest...it's the only way to go...I'm going to make scalper traders of all of them...
OK LET'S CHECK ALL THESE VERY OVERSOLD INDEXS...
A WORD OF CAUTION HERE...SHORTING AT SHORT TERM BOTTOMS IS NOT THE WAY TO TRADE..YOU SHORT INTO RALLIES...ALSO...I WATCH ALL CHARTS ON P&F, STOCKS, INDEX'S, FUTURES HECK NOW EVEN GOLD..HAHAHAHAH...EXCEPT FOR GOLD WE ARE VERY NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND ON "ALL" INDEXS...AND WHILE A MASSACRE IS BEING FORETOLD BY A TON OF PEOPLE OUT THERE...DON'T BET YOUR HOUSE ON IT...IN FACT WE PLAY AGAINST THE HOUSE WHEN IT'S BECOMING TOO BEARISH, OR TOO BULLISH...THE NUMBERS ARE STILL MOVING LOWER ON ALL CHARTS OF ALL INDEXS AND "ALL" P&F INDICATORS, THE DEEEFENSE IS "ON THE FIELD" FOR SURE...BUT TECHNICAL BOUNCES DO HAPPEN AT THE MOST INOPPORTUNE TIME...
SO ALL I'M SAYING I THINK IT'S POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT QUICK FAST UP MOVE HERE THIS WEEK...THEN MAYBE DOWN TO RE TEST THE LOWS AT THE END OF THE MONTH "IF" THE PREDICTOR'S ARE RIGHT<G>..US? WE DON'T PREDICT, WE'LL FOLLOW ANYONE THAT CAN LEAD US INTO THE PROMISED LAND, WHO EVER HE--SHE--OR IT IS...COULD CARE LESS...JUST TRADE WHATS IN FRONT OF YOUR FACE...
MAKE IT A RULE, GO TO CASH EVERY NIGHT, IF YOUR TRADING SCARED, CUT YOUR LOT SIZE DOWN IN 1/2, AND STOP TRYING TO TRADE 15-20 TIMES A DAY, TRY REACHING WHAT EVER YOUR GOAL IS FOR THE DAY, YOUR MONEY GOAL, YOUR DAYS PAY....BY DOING IT IN 4-5 TRADES....THEN GO FISH, PLAY GOLF, TAKE THE WIFE TO LUNCH, HECK SIT IN THE ROOM AND WATCH AND TALK, AND ENJOY...BUT STOP PRESSING, DO NOT GAMBLE, AND ONCE YOU MAKE THAT MONEY.."DO NOT GIVE IT BACK"
DJIA---A VERY SIMPLE CHART...IT'S CASCADING DOWN THIS WATERFALL AFTER BREAKING 9850 AS I WROTE ABOUT A FEW WEEKS BACK..EVERY RALLY WAS AND STILL IS A SHORT...IT HIT MY 1ST DOWNSIDE TARGET OF 9500...NEXT TARGET IS 9100, BUT...WE DID TOUCH THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK NEAR 9250 ON FRIDAY...WATCHING THIS ONE...9800 WOULD SEEM TO BE A GOOD SHORT AREA...FOR THE FINAL RUN DOWN...FINAL?...HMMMM...BTW ANYBREAK OF 9100 AND 8100 COMES INTO PLAY...
NAZ/COMPX---1400 IS THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK...1350 ANOTHER BREAKDOWN AREA THERE...1600 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP...HEY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER HUH?? SET ALERTS PLEASE...
NDX---NEAR THE CLIFF AGAIN, DID I SAY THIS BEFORE?..HEHEHEHEHE...1050 A SPREAD TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAKDOWN THERE AND VERY NEGATIVE SET ALERTS...THIS INDEX HAS GIVEN 6 YES 6 CONSECUTIVE SELL SIGNALS IN A ROW...1250 THE 3 BOX REV UP...
SOX---HAMMER HAMMER BROKEN HAMMER...FROM THE MAY 2001 TOP AT 750 THIS INDEX HAS SUCCUMBED VERY VERY SLOWLY, I MEAN IT WAS KICKING AND FIGHTING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO HERE...HECK THE SEPT LOWS ARE 360 FOLKS..60 POINTS AWAY...IF WE TOUCH THAT NUMBER I'LL BUY THE SMH WITH BOTH FEET, AND MANY SEMIS LEAP CALLS TOO...I'LL TAKE THAT RISK REWARD...480 THE 3 BOX REV UP IT HAS R THERE AND COULD COME RIGHT DOWN AGAIN IF THE WIZARDS ARE CORRECT ABOUT HEAVY CYCLE LOWS AT THE END OF THE MONTH...
REMEMBER THIS MUCH PLEASE...THIS MONTH IS END OF QUARTER WINDOW DRESSING FOR THE FUNDIES RIGHT?..SO BE COOL, ALSO WE HAVE TRIPLE WITCHING DURING THIS NEXT WEEK INTO THE 21ST...ONE CRAZY AND WILD FUN THE LAST 2 WEEKS HUH?...........
OEX---BROKE DOWN PERFECTLY AT 515 HIT 490 LAST FRIDAY...THE 10 WEEK IS AT 485..GOT THE PICTURE HERE EVERYONE????...ALL THE INDEX'S ARE SERIOUSLY OVERSOLD....ANY RALLY BACK UP TO 515/520 COULD BE A NICE SHORT..MAYBE USE JULY PUTS..WE'LL SEE...
SPX---HEAVILY OVERSOLD(O/S)...IT WENT BELOW THE 10 WEEK AND BOUNCED...1040/50 WOULD BE A GOOD UPSIDE TARGET TO SHORT...
BTK---IT CAME TO LIFE ON FRIDAY FROM THE DEPTHS OF DESPAIR...A NEW TREND? NOT WITH MY MONEY<VBG>...SCALP SOME STOCKS?, YOU BETCHA...NOW HEADSUP..THE BIOM BULLISH PERCENT IS AT 12% IT NEEDS 20% TO REVERSE BACK UP I'LL WAIT FOR THAT TO TAKE ANY LONG TERM POSITIONS...THE DAILY CANDLE CHART HAS A NICE 4 STICK PATTERN THERE WITH A BIG BULLISH ENGULFING ON FRIDAY..
SMH---12 CONSECUTIVE POINTS STRAIGHT DOWN AFTER IT BROKE 37..REMEMBER MY STOP WAS 36 3/4??? LOST SOME BUCKS ON THAT TRADE...31 THE 10 WEEK BOTTOM..HEY 28 IS THE SEPT LOWS...35 THE 3BXRVUP..38 HEAVY O/H R...
BBH---BIG BULLISH ENGULFING LIKE IT'S DADDY...TARGET ON THE UPSIDE IS 87/88ISH...MAY TAKE THIS LONG NEXT WEEK...
THE VXN AND VIX BOTH BROKE OUT OVER THE LAST 2 WEEKS...HOWEVER THEY ALSO HAVE BIG DOJI'S ON THE DAILIES...I THINK THIS IS THE SET UP FOR A RALLY THIS WEEK...THEY ARE OVERBOUGHT AND THE MARKETS OVERSOLD...MAKES FOR A GOOD RISK REWARD HERE...
HOWEVER TO COVER ALL BASES<g>...IF THEY TAKE OUT ANY HIGHS OF LAST WEEK? ALL BETS ARE STRICTLY OFF ON THE LONG SIDE...COMPRENDE'?....
LET'S DO THE WATCH LIST FOR THE COMING WEEK...
MSFT---HEY WHAT CAN I SAY...IT'S GOING TO STAY #1 UNTIL IT STOPS WORKING FOR US ALL...THIS STOCK IS SO STRONG RIGHT NOW, IT'S RS IS AMAZING...JUST REMEMBER THIS...EVERY STRONG STOCK CAN BREAK IF THE LAST NAIL IS REALLY BIG...THAT BREAK IS 48...THE SEPT LOWS...I HAVE MADE BETWEEN 6-12 POINTS A WEEK ON THIS STOCK..56 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG(BTL)...WITH 57 THE BRL LINE..(THE BEARISH RESISTANCE LINE) SO BE CAREFUL THERE..IN FACT IF THE MARKET ROLLS OVER THIS STOCK COULD BE A GOOD SHORT THERE RIGHT AT 57++..WATCH IT AND THE MARKETS CLOSELY...54 1/4 THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER(SST)...
EBAY---ANOTHER MONSTER..PEOPLE KEEP BETTING AGAINST THIS STOCK..WELL I HAVEN'T..IT'S THE "OTHER" STOCK I'VE BEEN SCALPING SUCCESSFULLY...EBAY BREAKS A TRIPLE TOP AT 59 LAST WEEK..I WAS ECSTATIC AS I WAS LONG<G>...NOW HERE'S THE STORY..IT HAS SOME CONGESTION O/H AT 60 & 61..BUT 62 CLEARS IT ALL OUT...COULD BE A GOOD ONE IF THE MARKETS RALLY...60 THE BTL....57.90 THE SST..
QCOM---GEEZ WHAT A WILD DAY FOR THAT STOCK...THEY SLAMMED IT INTO THE DIRT, AND IT COMES ROARING BACK ON 3 TIMES THE NORMAL VOLUME...TRULY AMAZING...30 3/4 THE BTL...28 3/4 THE SST...
EMLX----I TALKED ABOUT HOW STRONG THIS CHART LOOKED OVER THE LAST 2-3 WEEKS..WELL THIS MARKET TOOK THIS LITTLE STRONG STOCK AND KNOCKED IT TO HELL...JUST A HEADSUP..NO FALLING IN LOVE AGAIN<VBG>...JUST SCALP AND DAYTRADE OK?>...29 THE BTL...27.20 THE SST...
BRCD---STRONG LITTLE STOCK MOVING SIDEWAYS WITH DOJI'S WITH LOWER TAILS<G> THATS GOOD FOLKS...UPPER WICKS ARE BAD<G>......ON P&F IT'S LOOKING LIKE EITHER IT POPS, OR POOPS<VBG>....20.45 THE BTL....18.55 THE SST...
AMAT---DOWN 9 CONSECUTIVE POINTS...DUE FOR A BOUNCE HERE...MAYBE JUST 3-4 THO...20.25 THE BTL...19.30 THE SST...
KLAC---SOME HALF DECENT SUPPORT RIGHT HERE AT 46ISH...49 1/2 THE BTL...52 THE TARGET...47 1/4 THE SST...
QLGC---WE GOT A 3 BOX REV UP ON FRIDAY...44 WAS THAT NUMBER...CHART LOOKS GOOD HERE...45 THE BTL..TRY TO TRAIL UP STOPS IF THIS STOCK SHOULD RUN...THERE'S A HUGH DESCENDING WEDGE ON THE DAILY ANY POP OVER 46 WOULD BE BULLISH...42.90 THE PERFECT SST...
MERQ---THIS CHART HAS BEEN ROLLING OVER AND OVER & DOWN EACH WEEK FOR MONTHS...CLOSED AT THE HOD ON FRIDAY...28.50 THE BTL...26.80 THE SST..
NTIQ---HAS TRADITIONAL SUPPORT AT 19 FOR A LONG TIME...21.75 THE BTL...20.45 THE SST...
MEDI---OK HERE WE GO AGAIN<VBG>...BIO'S BABY..LET'S ROLL....STOCK BROKE DOWN ON P&F AT 28 A QUADRUPLE BOTTOM BREAK...IS TRYING TO RALLY HERE...29.70 THE BTL...28.50 THE SST...
GILD---BETTER LOOKING DAILY HERE..OFF A MORNING DOJI STAR THAT ACTUALLY HAD A GOOD CONTINUATION STICK ON FRIDAY...33.90 THE BTL...WAIT FOR IT...32.25 THE SST...
IDPH---WE HAVE A DCB CANDIDATE HERE..THATS A DEAD CAT BOUNCE...THE DAILY CANDLE CHART LOOKS NICE...35.75 IS THE NICE BTL...34.20 THE SST...
AFFX---TYPICAL CHART LIKE MEDI...BREAKS A BIG BOTTOM ON P&F AND RALLIES UP HERE..THOSE 2 STOCKS ARE SHORTS AS THEY RUN UP AND INTO R(RESISTANCE)...HOWEVER...23 1/4 THE BTL...22.20 THE SST..
MYGN---TRYING TO BOTTOM HERE<g>....LOL....19.25 THE BTL...20 IS A NEW BOTTOM FISH BUY SIGNAL...18 THE SST...
AMZN----UH OH..IT'S CLOSE TO A HIGH POLE WARNING...LONGS HEADSUP HERE...NOT THERE YET THO...IT'S HAD A SOLID PULLBACK OFF THAT VERY NICE POP...THERE'S A DOUBLE BOTTOM ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART TOO...17.50 THE BTL...18 KEEPS YOU IN THE TRADE...16 THE SOLID SST..
IBM---THIS CHART IS FROM HELL...IT'S NEARING THE CLIFF AGAIN...IT'S A SHORT ALL RALLY TYPE CHART SO FAR...BUT IT DOUBLE BOTTOMED ON BOTH P&F AND CANDLESTICKS SO LET'S SEE...77.40 IS THE BTL.,..PLEASE WAIT FOR IT...75.25 THE SST...73 IS NOT PRETTY...
GE----WELL GOLLY GE...........IT'S RIGHT AT THE SEPT LOWS, "AND" AT THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK...HMMM..LET'S SEE IF THIS BEHEMOTH CAN BOUNCE HERE...30.50 IS THE NICE BTL...BE PATIENT...OR YOU COULD BUY IT HERE AND PLACE A SOLID HARD STOP AT 27 3/4....29.25 THE SST...
INTC---WELL THEY SURE BEAT THIS ONE UP..I'D SAY IT'S TIME FOR A BOUNCE...END OF QUARTER WINDOW DRESSING WITH THE WARNING BEHIND THE FUNDIES???..HMMMM...22 THE BTL...23 THE 3BXRVUP YOU STAY LONG...20.75 THE SST...
BGEN---WHAT A WILD RIDE THIS HAS BEEN SHEESH...DOUBLE BOTTOMS ON BOTH THE DAILY AND WEEKLY CHARTS...NICE DOJI LAST WEEK...43 1/4 THE BTL..IT MUST BREAK THRU GAP R OVER HEAD HERE...41.40 THE SST...
EXPE---I LIKE THIS STOCK FOR A LONG HERE...I THINK IT HAS MID 70'S WRITTEN ALL OVER IT...WELL I OPENED MY BIG MOUTH HERE HUH<vbg>...MARKET WILLING OF COURSE..OH HEDGE THIS!!!!...69 IS MY BTL AND I'LL TAKE IT...66.90 IS THE SST..
WELL MY FRIENDS THATS IT FOR NOW...HAVE A GREAT TRADING WEEK...I SUGGEST YOU ALL "STOP" READING EVERYTHING OUT THERE, AND JUST RELAX AND CONCENTRATE ON WHAT'S IN FRONT OF YOUR EYES..SEEING IS BELIEVING...FORGET THAT DAMN NOISE...FOLLOW NONE OF THOSE SO CALLED GURUS..JUST BE A GOOD DAYTRADER...YOU DO KNOW WHAT OPINIONS ARE LIKE RIGHT???<GGGGGGG>...
OK NUFF SAID
WARMEST REGARDS
JER
Jerry Olson
MasterClassTraders.com
jerry@masterclasstraders.com
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