To: Venkie who wrote (7934 ) 6/25/2002 12:06:40 PM From: stockman_scott Respond to of 13815 Housing Sector to Keep Powering Ahead By Dan Wilchins Tuesday June 25, 12:02 pm Eastern Time NEW YORK (Reuters) - Prices of U.S. homes are likely to climb higher over the next two decades, even if the market may cool in the near term, according to a study released on Tuesday. Demographic growth is fueling the demand for housing, with an average of 1.2 million new households expected to be formed annually over the next two decades, according to the report from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. It cited growing immigrant and minority populations and the proliferation of households with fewer members for the expected increase in housing demand. Baby boomers will also spur demand for houses as they reach the age where they look to buy luxury homes or second homes, according to the report. All in all, builders will need to add 1.7 million homes and apartments annually to keep up with demand. That number exceeds the rate of household formation because of demand for second homes and replacements for homes no longer habitable. The numbers show that the outlook is rosy for the housing sector, which has already performed solidly over the last decade. Inflation-adjusted home prices surged 5.7 percent in 2001 over the previous year, the seventh consecutive year of housing price appreciation. Annual sales of existing single-family homes last year reached an all-time high of 5.3 million units. Sales of existing homes fell 0.3 in May, a national real estate trade association said on Tuesday, but the pace was still the fourth-highest on record. Sales of previously owned homes, the largest category of home sales, slid to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.75 million units last month from a downwardly revised 5.77 million in April, the National Association of Realtors said. "The beat goes on. The housing sector continues to defy all odds," NAR chief economist David Lereah said. STOCK MARKET SPURS HOUSING INVESTMENT The sector last year provided much-needed support to a shaky economy, as a sagging stock market led home owners to pull money out of the market and invest in their homes, said Nicolas Retsinas, director of the Harvard housing center. "People look at the volatility of the stock market. They think housing is less volatile than the stock market, and it has the added advantage of being an investment you can use," he said. Spending on additions and alterations reached a peak in 2001, at $99 billion. Existing home sales reached a record, while new home sales rose 3 percent to 906,000 units. Going forward, an increasing number of consumers will invest in real estate by buying second homes and trading up to luxury homes. Typical luxury home and second home buyers are in their early 50's, said John Burns, a real estate consultant in Irvine, California. Over the next eight years, the number of 53-year-olds will increase by 22 percent, excluding immigration and mortality, he said. INVESTMENT FILTERS THROUGH TO THE ECONOMY Housing price gains have a greater impact on the economy than stock market gains, the report said. Citing statistics from the Federal Reserve Board, the report said that for every $1,000 gain realized from a home sale, spending rises by as much as $150. In contrast, every $1,000 in stock market gain generates $30 to $50 in additional spending. Overall, the housing sector was responsible for about 20 percent of gross domestic product last year. The Harvard center's report was funded by the Ford Foundation and the Policy Advisory Board of the Joint Center for Housing Studies. Players such as the Fannie Mae Foundation, Freddie Mac, the Federal Home Loan Banks and the Mortgage Bankers Association of America also provided support.