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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrice Gigahurtz who wrote (83243)	6/25/2002 9:29:50 PM
From: StormRider	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

WorldCom engaged in accounting fraud... capitulation tomorrow or this week?? it seems that market bottoms are closely linked with end of quarters...

To: Patrice Gigahurtz who wrote (83243)	7/2/2002 5:04:12 AM
From: Greg Jung	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Pat if you're not the firefighter then its best to just stand aside out of trouble. Are these companies you're invested in (via the SP or NDX) worth the extra premium still assigned? The standing stocks of IBM, MSFT, CSCO are the core holdings of the indices (MSFT and INTC in ALL of them) and if they fall a further 50% you can mark NDX, SPX by about 75% just for that. ------ end of lecture ------- My best winning position these days is the rydex venture fund RYVNX which I started back last august so that current withdrawals are without fee. it follows inverse of NDX 200% so today's 5% move down RYVNX improved 10%. These are best for one-way moves but it leaks quite a bit - due to mathematics, the last bear rally round trip sucked about 5%. So I'm taking pieces out on the big down days, if it manages to get above water some more I'll put this back at lower prices. If there's a substantial rally like you expect I'll start another MuFund the simple 1./SPX (which doesn't leak like the leveraged funds). I expect that to take on more water over the long haul, but I am less confident about where it might wander in the meantime. The unleveraged funds leave you level after a round trip, the leveraged ones lose money as big move days are made. If I had enough in this account to have low relative trading costs I'd be working on combos with the ETF such as QQQ - daily closings are so often much different than intra-day extremes, you could lock in the extremes of the fund with a hedging transaction during the day. But its not gonna work if you have the general direction wrong. Are stocks such as GE, AOL, MSFT going towards fair valuation when they drop, or when they rise? I dont know, there is too much mystery and possible shenanigans behind those names. They are relentlessly dropping because foreign investors are taking money out of US equity assets. Ma and Pa Kettle are being left behind. I dont know when or how far the market will go down in its current trend but if it rallies later I would expect highs at lower levels from those in the previous move. If that doesn't happen I dont know what to conclude but my own perception of how it will shake out is like a slinky stepping down a staircase. I think your attempts to guess market direction based on the daily economic dribbles, trying to sync with the talking heads or whatever info you are using, is unproductive.