Hi David, <<NAS has traced out what looks like … diagonal … overlapping waves … >>
I think looks can be fatally deceiving at times. This is especially true when we journey into the uncharted territory where money, emotion, and calculation converge, every so often.
What would the chart of the Nikkei index look like back in 1990, 92, 94, 96, 98, 2000, and 2002 January? What about 1991, 93, 95, 97, 99, and December 2001?
Fractal scaled down, what did Argentina’s biorhythms look like in each of the past 36 months?
Fractal scaled up, what does the graphical representation of the Roman Empire look like in each of its several generations of growth and decline?
I believe charts and diagrams have their uses, especially when accompanied with other tools of the trade, say macro-micro, top-down/bottom-up, fundamental, comparative, etc, so on and so forth, and those other methods, involving seasonality, demography, and whatever else.
I think, at this moment, it is safer to say that gold has bottomed than to believe Nasdaq has hit sandbar.
<<> The good news, of course, is that there is a bottom, and we are closer to it than ever before, than last week, for example. The bad news, naturally, is what will happen after we hit bottom of the market indices.<
Fill me in, please? I guess you have some links to your past posts?>>
I have only vaguely mumbled something about what happens after whatever else happens. I was and am vague, because, guess what, I do not know:0)
Message 16212324
“Now, should the cataclysm be unobstructed, a new dawn may arrive sooner. We must lead the village idiots to the volcanic abyss of Inflation or the black hole of Deflation, to be sacrificed to the gods of work, thrift, family and savings. I am being optimistic and am of course assuming that all the market noise and propaganda smoke is not in fact camouflaging an inflection point connecting Silicon Glory to an as yet unknown “next abracadabra”, as the Rust Belt was once transformed into Silicon Glory but accompanied by much dying anguish and birthing pain.”
On the stock market indices, I would imagine they would go up after, by definition, they hit bottom. The constituent parts will have changed, via survivor’s bias, replaced by new winners, recreating the myth that 'in the long run, markets always go up'.
On our relative financial futures, and yes, everything is relative, and we each have a different financial future, based on what we did before, now, and in the future, I am worried.
I suspect we are in fact on the cusp of great change, the once in 500 year kind, and the change is … nah, too fanciful, forget I ever mentioned it, let’s go back to our money games and less fantastic musings.
Please remember to always keep 3-5% of your NAV in precious metals.
The other 95-97% of NAV is plenty to play with already.
Chugs, Jay |
