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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff who wrote (2719)	6/24/2002 11:16:46 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 30712

Jeff, in order to re-trace the bubble, we have to decide where it started. Bubbles tend to re-trace in bell curves, so we need to decide when this one started exactly. Was it the July 1996 low? July 1996 NDX low was 572. COMP low was 1008 in July 1996. I think that's where we could start to look for targets. SPX July 1996 low was 606. The Dow was 5170 in July 1996 at the lows. My crash value theory would indicate the COMP should be around 878 next spring, the SPX around 815, and the Dow 6400 based on the 1990 base lows and an 8% annual rate of return. Crash value on the 1982 base low on the Dow yields Dow 6400 and SPX 815 also. I would have to say those are my targets for those spring 2003 lows, as they mesh with two important lows. I disregard the 1987 low due to the computer programmed sells.

To: Jeff who wrote (2719)	6/25/2002 3:00:58 AM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Respond to of 30712

Yeah, whenever I get to confident, that is when we get a nice little short squeeze that eats into my short-n-hold positions. So I keep myself open to the idea that I am wrong. I actually don't follow the retrace scenario that closely....that's your job. I just come over here and get my little updates and see where it sits with what I am seeing. One of these days, everyone is going to notice the retrace correlation, just like everyone has noticed the last week of June cycle low, and the market will do what it can to make the retrace folks feel the market's pain too. <ggg> But since January, I have been steadfast in my bearish scenario....through every little rally. Gotta say that this thread helps me through those short squeezes:-)